when the intent of the Iranian attack was not to win ~ not investing article
Iran and Israel conflict
It started with the “arrest” of MSC Aries at the Straits of Hormuz.
BREAKING: IRAN BANS ALL SHIPS LINKED TO ISRAEL
“Starting today, all vessels linked to the Zionist regime are banned from operating in the Oman Sea and the Persian Gulf.Any such vessels found in these waters will be confiscated.”
This thread means that all Israeli-linked vessels would not be able to travel past the Oman Sea and the Persian Gulf.
This would be taken seriously by the shipping industry, causing further disruptions to the regional supply chain. Vessels will be forced to divert, leading to an increase in supply chain lead time and cost.
Missiles and Drones were launched
The screenshot was taken from the NBC news report.
Iran launched its retaliation after Israel bombed its embassy in Damascus, Syria (killing civilians and its key military personnel).
A myriad of missiles and drones (estimated 331 units) were launched towards Israel. according to the IDF, only 7 units were not intercepted. Thus far, no deaths have been reported, and minor injuries have been reported.
Retaliation by Iran
For any retaliation, it is surprising that Iran would give Israel any heads-up. Following the launch of the missiles and drones, Iran declared a successful end to its retaliation and warned Israel of any retaliation on their part. Sufficient time was given to Israel and IDF for them to mobilize their troops, set up their defences and look to Israel’s allies to prepare for their defence.
Iran did not utilize all the weapons at its disposal. Its arsenal of hypersonic missiles would not deploy during this strike.
Cost of War
$1B spent by USA and $110M spent by Israel to intercept. It was mentioned that the weapons of Iran cost a fraction of the price of those used by Israel.
Success of Iran
The success for Iran does not come from Israel burning $1.1 billion to intercept this attack. Iran would have an update on Israel’s military and defence protocol regarding troops, equipment and logistics deployment. Were they able to have eyes from the sky and eyes on the ground to map out the various military locations, personnel, processes and interception of Israeli communications?
Iran would have gained an invaluable understanding of how Israel and its allies coordinate their joint defence. The capability of Israel’s defence systems would be refreshed and mapped out.
Having such an understanding, Iran would be more prepared should they strike in the future. Spies that have infiltrated Israel and its region could have gathered more intel.
This is a very affordable way to understand the defence of Israel. Without deploying weapons such as the hypersonic missiles, Iran has kept some tricks in its sleeves. In the next conflict, Iran would be more “prepared”. Hopefully, there will not be a “next” conflict.
As of 2 pm SGT (15 Apr 2024), Israel has yet to finalize its retaliation efforts although various world leaders have advised against this.
My muse
Israel needs to focus on the immediate domestic (Gaza) issues unless they are opened to multiple war fronts. Such campaigns would consume more ammunition from both the USA and Israel. We have learned that arms production is not up to speed. It will take years for the USA to replenish some of the ammunition donated to Ukraine. Adding Israel to the mix, the consumption will strain the production even more. Is this a strategy for the US to incur more debts? Is this part of a coordinated effort to drain the US of its resources and incur debt so that it can offer no support later?
At the current rate, can the USA support multiple military hotspots? There are concerns about threats in Asia, even though some could be propaganda. Will the supply chain of the military companies be able to support it if the US is willing to finance it? Can the US afford more federal deficit to fund another war? Can the US citizens accept nothing less than a citizen-first policy? Would this be more important than a broken border?
In war, the difference could boil down to the one who made the “lesser and smaller” mistakes. I hope that Israel can clear its plates before adding retaliation (if any) to its current plans. Death is the biggest winner in war. If we wish to make sense of wars, one of the ways could be to follow the money trail.
Let us hope that negotiations would lead the way to resolution instead of bullets.
Let us hope for a peaceful resolution and yet, it is hard when coming to emotions.
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