To The Moon

The situation in the Middle East has once again become the focus of the market in recent days, with some concerns about the conflict between Iran and Israel. Although both sides have shown signs of perseverance, it is more likely that there will be “big thunder, little rain”.

At the same time, referring to the geopolitical conflicts and small-scale military operations that have occurred several times before, the financial market can basically digest the impact within a week, so short-term fluctuations are difficult to shake the market trend.

In theory, gold and crude oil are naturally the most sensitive to this topic. Last Friday's rise and fall seem to have previewed the weekend's soap opera in advance: Compared with a real fight, it seems more cost-effective to make a tough statement to give the people an explanation.

We have specifically talked about oil prices last week. After returning to the central axis, chasing long is no longer the best choice. Bulls even need to consider the operation of locking in profits.

Gold is slightly different. Its trend after the adjustment after the year is like a rainbow. Therefore, the price of gold has continued to rise before the geopolitical news. After the short-term risk aversion topic emerges, it is not uncommon for new highs to appear.

However, as pullback approached $100 from the highest point last Friday, the opportunities for short-term market correction and corrections have also increased significantly. In other words, the realization of good news and negative news may explain the subsequent market.

It is also worth mentioning that silver has also shown signs of rising recently, but it still has not broken through the key suppression above 30. With the retracement of the gold-silver ratio, in the callback market, the decline of silver is expected to be greater than that of gold.

And if the market outlook stands above 30, you need to be alert to the arrival of the last wave of supplementary growth, as well as the possible head of precious metals. Of course, the time node of this area is more likely to be at the end of the year.

Back to the topic itself, some friends are worried about the risk of expansion, and some even start to worry about the outbreak of World War III.

For this point, I can only say that it is a bit unfounded. Although both Iran and Israel have backing behind them, neither wants to make things big. In addition, this year is an election year. When there are no core contradictions in the country, the US government has no reason to take risks and fight. So at least from the perspective of the situation in the second and third quarters, there may be small fights, and fatal gameplay will not appear.

Finally, from the perspective of assets, trending risk assets such as US stocks have experienced a certain correction before, so it is expected to return to the upward rhythm after the news; Gold takes time to digest due to short-term exhaustion. Shock assets are expected to rise/fall near key areas, thereby maintaining a large consolidation mode.

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