Musk's Misses Hurt TSLA & His Credibility
Elon Musk loves to make wild predictions about the future; without supporting evidences.
A few have materialized, thanks to his talented team.
For every prediction that came true, there are many that Musk would rather you forget.
Recently, Musk was at it again!
He claimed that super-smart artificial intelligence (AGI) could be here in just a year or two.
This time, many experts disagree and think he is too optimistic.
There's even a $10 million bet that AI won't be smarter than humans by 2025.
Blasts from the past.
Below are 9 incidences on how wrong Mr Visionaire could be.
(1) Hyperloop to O’Hara.
In 2013, Elon Musk shared his visions of a Hyperloop (a super-fast transportation system) on Twitter. (see above)
Following year saw him with Chicago mayor unveiling a scale down version of it (called the Loop) that will transfer passenger between airport and downtown in 12 mins.
The project failed to launch.
Instead, the Loop appeared in Las Vegas, using regular Tesla & human driven. Nothing futuristic at all.
(2) Humans on Mars by 2024.
Elon Musk's SpaceX found success in launching rockets and bringing internet to remote areas.
As for his Mars prediction, it is pure fantasy, especially the timelines og getting people there.
In 2014, he imagined humans could be on Mars by 2024!
He even envisioned a city on Mars, with 1 million inhabitants and said he'd like to die there (of old age presumably).
Fact remains putting people on Mars is a long way off.
(3) Tesla’s 1,000 kilometer range.
In September 2015, Elon Musk predicted Tesla Model S could drive over 600 miles on a single charge by 2017.
7 years later, the record stands at 560 miles, - achieved under ridiculous conditions :
Drivers planned meticulously and maximized every possible efficiency.
Drive at speed of 24 miles per hour.
Another broken dream.
(4) Coast-to-Coast Autonomous Driving.
In 2016, Elon Musk said that $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ would be able to drive themselves from anywhere in the US, like going from LA to New York by itself!
It didn't happen by 2018.
He kept saying it was coming soon, only his fans are still waiting.
(5) Round the Moon Trip by 2018.
In 2017, Elon Musk said people could fly around the Moon with SpaceX by 2018.
Then he pushed that date to 2023, but neither happened.
Even NASA's mission to fly people around the Moon won't happen until 2025.
Still no news from SpaceX about when regular people can visit planet Moon.
(6) Full Self Driving (FSD) Next YearS.
In 2018, a viral video, which was deleted from YouTube by the content creator.
Luckily, it has been re-uploaded by others.
The video is a supercut of Musk promising fully autonomous driving “next year” staring from 2014 .
The problem it seems, is that he made the “next year” promise over and over and over and over and over again.
(7) Robotaxis by 2020.
In 2019, Elon Musk said Tesla would have self-driving robotaxis in a year. He also claimed other cars would be outdated without this tech.
5 years on, Tesla robotaxis are nowhere insight, although Mr Musk is “ready” to showcase its robotaxis in August 2024.
It looks like a hoax thought, read this !
(8) Closed to Zero new cases.
On 19 Mar 2020, Elon Musk famously predicted near zero new COVID cases in the US by April 2020.
In fact, cases soared to 20,000 a day - with Musk continuous downplayed the virus's seriousness.
Final tally - US had over 1.1 million Covid deaths, millions more suffering from long Covid, with the virus still around to stay.
(9) AI more dangerous than Nukes.
Elon Musk invests in AI companies while also warn about its dangers as early as August 2014. Some say this is confusing.
Musk worries AI could be like a dangerous weapon, but experts say that's not quite true.
New AI chatbots like ChatGPT and Grok are impressive, but they do not actually think for themselves.
They just predict the next word really well. Real danger comes from people overestimating what AI can do.
My viewpoints: (mine & mine only)
I might be wrong, but I truly believe he loves to hear himself speak.
Maybe he never recovered from the trauma of being ousted at eBay, after his company x.com was acquired.
This explains his Twitter addiction, always online - actively seeking audience.
If it is only “cheap thrill” he is after, fine no biggie.
His unsubstantiated views on Covid infection was unforgiveable though.
He is not even medically qualified, yet he was airing his thoughts as if.
His impulsive behaviour will lead to his ultimate downfall and the wheels are in motion if he does not get his act together. (see below)
Based on past 1 month performance, has lost about -17.71% in its stock price.
Anticipating that it will fall further when Q1 2024 earnings are reported on Tue, 23 Apr 2024 after market closing.
Think CEO is “desperate” to stem expenss bleeding as he decided to cull the entire Marketing team including its Head; just a year into action.
If only he knows when to comment “selectively” & “constructively”, focus on what he does best, his path would have been more illustrious and respected.
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Let's see if this rally sustains after these numbers-
Revenue 21.3B, Reduced consensus was 22.3B, Q1 2023 22.3B.
EPS 0.46, Reduced consensus was 0.51, Q1 2023 0.85.
Profit 1.5B, 55% lower than Q1 2023. Of this nearly $500 million was from sale of EV credits.
They have missed on rock bottom expectations but don't worry, they've shown dreams of the future.
But good report tho!
Shorts are nervous now, indeed
Pls help to "Re-post". Tks! Rating is important (to me).
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