To The Moon

tldr: Watch the Tesla bears perform the Dunkirk retreat.

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$
To analyze Nvidia's trend, we must first look at $ARM Holdings Ltd(ARM)$ . ARM will report earnings after the close on Wednesday. As is well known, one chipmaker's earnings can impact the entire semiconductor sector and even the broader market. If ARM surges, Nvidia will surge. And if Nvidia rises, the market will rise.

Based on current large option positions, the market is extremely bullish on ARM's earnings, with far-dated 155 calls ($ARM 20240621 155.0 CALL$ ) even seeing activity.

If ARM is expected to rally, then Nvidia and the market should rally too, right?

This week, Nvidia options show inertial bullishness, but the volume is concentrated at strike resistance levels, which is awkward. The good news is put options haven't seen abnormal volumes.

The volatility expectations for the broad market are interesting: calls at the top, puts at the bottom. While we can't infer that ARM will miss based on this, it seems its impact may be limited. Therefore, I think waiting for ARM's earnings to position makes sense - sell puts on a drop, keep selling calls if 920 doesn't break, or sell puts if it does break 920.

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$
On Tuesday, retail bought Tesla's 180 calls in size. But institutions were quietly buying the 165 puts (TSLA 20240510 165.0 PUT). This made me re-examine the largest open put position for next week's 160 strike ($TSLA 20240517 160.0 PUT$ ).

This 160 put saw a massive volume spike on May 2nd, overtaking the previously largest 150 put position. Moreover, this wasn't outright buying - it was a spread trade where the buyer purchased the 160 puts while selling the 170 puts in a 4:1 ratio. Clearly this trader is confident Tesla holds 170 by June, but is willing to take a shot on a near-term dip.

But what exactly could cause this near-term dip? This is quite intriguing. One coincidence worth noting - the current 42k open interest in the 185 calls ($TSLA 20240816 185.0 CALL$ ) was a sell order by a large trader when shares were at 165 on April 24th. I had previously wondered how this trader would exit, and perhaps the week of 5/17 is their final exit window.

Considering this factor, I'm lowering my Tesla target for 5/17 to 170. But I'll say this - as splashy as this trader's actions seem, the temporary dip they're enabling is likely fodder for shorts to cover, not an opportunity to blindly pile on shorts.

$Apple(AAPL)$
Apple is just sitting tight around 180, and likely will next week too.

$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$
My touting of Meta's competitive advantages wasn't an exaggeration after all. After tying up capital for a couple weeks, I've roughly gotten back to cost basis. Going to take profit first, not because I'm bearish on the name, but simply lacking bandwidth to focus on too many names. May look to buy shares on dips later.

$Snap Inc(SNAP)$
Why am I suggesting buying Meta on dips? I noticed a 40k put trade in Snap's August 15 strikes ($SNAP 20240816 15.0 PUT$ ) which has me a bit spooked. If Snap pulls back, doesn't that mean Meta would too?