To The Moon

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$
Human mindsets are hard to reverse. I had just adjusted to no June drop, and now sentiment has shifted to how high can we go.

On Wednesday, the huge SPY upside call buyers closed the 535 strikes ( $SPY 20240614 535.0 CALL$  ) and rolled 49,000 contracts into the 548 calls ( $SPY 20240628 548.0 CALL$  ). Implying the S&P could rally another 1.2%, with SPX possibly hitting 5500 by month-end! Ridiculous.

$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$
Over in the Nasdaq, focus is more on protective positioning, but strike levels are telling:

For example, the 465/475 put/call spread ( $QQQ 20240621 465.0 PUT$  $QQQ 20240621 475.0 CALL$ ) suggests limited downside but capped upside next week.

Stock replacement: Long shares + long 460 puts ( $QQQ 20240628 460.0 PUT$  ), short 485 calls ( $QQQ 20240628 485.0 CALL$ )

For QQQ, a drop to 465 by June-end isn't major, just back to Monday/Tuesday levels.

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$
The leader of this irrational move. High open interest can trigger volatility squeezes if market makers can't control it.

The 120 calls and 110 puts have been seeing 10,000+ contracts of closing trades every day this week.

You think market makers are scared?

After last week's ramp, 125 and 130 are battling for this week's close. The 125 strike looks tough from Thursday's open, so likely capping below 130.

Selling the 125 put ( $NVDA 20240621 125.0 PUT$  ) is no longer an aggressive stance - can sell at-the-money puts.

$Apple(AAPL)$
While a $3 trillion company gaining 10% in a week sounds crazy, after 2.5 years of consolidation, 10% doesn't feel like that much.

But the market didn't anticipate this surge.

Likely closing 210-220 this week. The 220 area may also cap next week based on open interest levels.

The 200 calls mentioned previously are being aggressively closed.

Can look to sell the 210 put ( $AAPL 20240621 210.0 PUT$ )

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$
For shady games, Tesla takes the cake this week.

Last Friday, the 0dte whales flipped from sell to buy side, buying the 185 calls ( $TSLA 20240614 185.0 CALL$ ).

I can understand fading sell call flows, but buying 0dte calls is asking for trouble. That's why I sold the 200 put against Apple's 207.5 0dte call buying last week - too many traps from these flows.

How did Tesla trade Monday/Tuesday? Down 3.68% intraday at one point, almost breaching support. Even selling puts felt iffy, let alone buying 0dte calls.

Proving they're no cleaner than GME's handlers, it seems Friday's option volatility attracted chasers who got shaken out this week.

But the magnitude and trajectory of this ramp still feels suspicious. The 185 put base ( $TSLA 20240816 185.0 CALL$ ) hasn't budged, and the 250 call buyers rolled down to 220 strikes. Implying 185 remains the two-month baseline.

Yesterday's big flow was buying the 205 calls and selling the 220 calls (TSLA 20240621 205/220 calls) for over $400k premium - a speculative upside play not recommended for sizing.

Previous strategies remain intact - no major changes.