To The Moon

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$

Since Nvidia's earnings report, market makers have repeatedly lost control of the stock price, leading to the post-earnings melt-up and the bizarre non-pullback after the split.

Fervent retail buying has caused weekly price consolidation ranges to be consistently broken, with Friday close targets jumping from $110 all the way to $140 - a reminder that failed predictions are part and parcel of bull markets.

Essentially, retail consensus to buy has vastly exceeded Street expectations, leaving market makers scrambling.

Tomorrow is quadruple witching, with an estimated $5.5 trillion in notional option exposure expiring this quarter. Around one-third of Nvidia's outstanding call options will expire on the 21st (Friday).

Based on open interest distributions, theoretically Nvidia should close around $110 on Friday, with $120 as the next major level. But it feels like no matter how much it dips Thursday/Friday, those targets will be tough to reach.

Of course, if it did somehow drop to $120, we all know the drill.

Whether to brace for a Friday crash depends on put buying below $130 on Thursday - current data suggests little chance of a full-blown flush.

Here are some of the major trades from recently:

1. Call Spread
   Buy $NVDA 20240920 212 CALL$ 
   Sell $NVDA 20240920 265 CALL$ 
   16,500 contracts traded for over $6b in premium

2. Call Selling
   Sold 15,000 $NVDA 20241220 250 CALL$  for $3.75m

3. Call Selling
   Sold 13,000 $NVDA 20241220 180 CALL$  for $9.36m

4. Call Buying
   Bought 14,300 $NVDA 20250620 265 CALL$  for $7.45m

The key takeaway from these is year-end targets below $265.

The 180 call sale appears to be an outright naked short, setting an extremely aggressive upside cap. But it aligns with the stock/call/put combined strategy I outlined before.

$Apple(AAPL)$

Closed $AAPL 20241018 220 CALL$ 
Rolled to open $AAPL 20241115 245 CALL$ 

10,000 contracts maintained, closed for $97m, rolled for $4.35m premium. $245 target.

Not much to say - keep buying. Given Apple's proclivity to range, holding shares + weekly put sales is advisable.

Repeating again - in bull markets, owning shares is crucial. Put sales are supplemental, but unlikely to outperform stock gains.

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$

Closed $TSM 20240816 140 CALL$ 
Rolled to open $TSM 20240816 165 CALL$ 

August $189 target. 55,000 contracts rolled to 68,000. Closed $242m, rolled $164m premium.

$Microsoft(MSFT)$

Closed $MSFT 20240816 375 CALL$ 
Rolled to open $MSFT 20240816 420 CALL$ 

Volume data unclear but at least 40,000 contracts rolled to 50,000.

Closed $MSFT 20241018 460 CALL$ 
Rolled to open $MSFT 20241115 510 CALL$ 

20,000 rolled to 20,000 for $40.6m closed, $18.9m rolled.

$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$
August 16th 440 calls rolled to 470 strikes, direction unclear.

$Qualcomm(QCOM)$

Put/Call/Call Combo:
Sell $QCOM 20240705 230 PUT$ 
Buy $QCOM 20240816 240 CALL$ 
Sell $QCOM 20240816 260 CALL$ 

Put:Call:Call ratio of 7000:14000:14000

Despite the 3-leg structure, this is a massively bullish play on Qualcomm. It requires Qualcomm to stay above $230 by July 5th. If so, the net debit paid is only $4m for leveraged upside exposure.

To summarize the overall flow - the market remains staunchly bullish.