To The Moon

Sharing some seemingly solid option trades for this week:

$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$

This week is likely rangebound, with ups and downs of around 20 points, perfectly suited for an iron condor strategy:

• Sell $QQQ 20240705 470 PUT$ , Buy $QQQ 20240705 465 PUT$ 

• Sell $QQQ 20240705 490 CALL$ , Buy $QQQ 20240705 495 CALL$ 

Considering next week's CPI release on the 11th, there are also bearish plays, though tamer than the previous 5% downside targets in this bull market:

• Buy $QQQ 20240710 475 PUT$ 

• Sell $QQQ 20240710 460 PUT$ 

The above are two block trades I picked up. I favor call/put spreads this week, as while there is non-farm payrolls this Friday, its impact pales compared to next week's CPI.

Speaking of CPI's impact, we saw an intriguing trade last Friday in TLT:

Sale of $TLT 20240802 91 CALL$ 

With TLT closing at 91.78 on Friday, this trade is selling upside calls in TLT, implying the trader doesn't see TLT reclaiming 91 by the August 2nd expiration.

Notably, August 1st is the FOMC meeting, and August 2nd is the July non-farm payrolls release.

So institutions don't seem to be pricing in rate cuts at this meeting. Extrapolating to economic data, that would imply continued strength - a positive for equities.

There was another TLT call sale last Friday as well: TLT 20240920 100 CALLS. If no cuts are expected in August, it's a stretch to expect aggressive cuts by September to take TLT back to 100.

With the S&P 500 already at 5500 midyear, who would believe the economy is faltering?

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$

Based on Friday's positioning, this week's expected range remains anchored at 120-125. Huge 115 put interest, but without giving it a chance to get there, that strike will be picked off.

There's a notion now that the higher the options volume, the more stable the stock. Enlightening wisdom, indeed.

My Apple and Tesla call/put spread forecasts from last Friday remain valid at 210/225 and 185/220 respectively. Selling upside calls too early still feels premature.

$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$

Institutions have added AMD to their covered call selling repertoire, or perhaps I just wasn't tracking it before:

Sale of $AMD 20240705 167.5 CALL$ 

An interesting strike and timing - 167 has been a sticking point AMD failed to clear for two straight weeks. After another failed breakout on Friday, they pulled the trigger on call sales over their lunch break.

$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$

A massive roll into $META 20240816 500 CALL$ 

This is about as aggressive a call roll as I've seen. After the beatdown and seemingly effortless V-recovery, the trade feels like pure shenanigans.

Let me get ahead of them with some $META 20240712 490 PUT$  this time instead of getting run over again.