To The Moon

Based on the current trend, SPY is likely headed towards 545, although a fresh rally to new highs is possible after risk is released. However, the potential downturn could be painful.

$Netflix(NFLX)$
Netflix has a high probability of leading the earnings pullback, as major option flows are skewed bearishly, though this doesn't necessarily imply disappointing results.

This week's put spread targets 600-570:
Buy NFLX 20240719 600 Puts
Sell NFLX 20240719 570 Puts

Next week's put spread strikes are 660-580:
Buy NFLX 20240726 650 Puts
Sell NFLX 20240726 580 Puts

Implying around a 10% potential downside.

$Microsoft(MSFT)$
While Netflix bearishness is expected, the emergence of large MSFT put buyers is surprising, including long-dated outright puts:

Buying $MSFT 20250321 460.0 PUT$ 
Buying MSFT 20250321 450 Puts

Notably, the 450 puts were initially bought on June 28th, which was counter-trend at the time.

Long-dated puts don't necessarily imply a bearish 2025 view, but can obfuscate nearer-term downside targets.

At-the-money strike selection also masks potential downside targets, but the size and premium outlay signals committed bearish bets.

However, pre-earnings pullbacks aren't necessarily negative, and selling MSFT 420 puts could be considered.

$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$
Haha, last quarter I mentioned META's wide defensive moat as the global social media monopoly.

Then the likely next President Trump threatened to sanction Zuckerberg.

To be honest, Trump's re-election now seems like a foregone conclusion, unless there's another, successful assassination attempt.

Regarding META, an unusual outright put buyer emerged: $META 20240802 380.0 PUT$ 

10,000 lots for $2 million in premium. I'd suggest trading META earnings via a strangle strategy.

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$
The NVDA put buying on Wednesday was rather peculiar, with purposeful strikes at 100.

Typically, as stocks decline, put buyers scale into strikes in an orderly fashion like 120, 118, 115 etc, prioritizing front month/week expirations.

Deploying at 100 strike, whether buyers or sellers, implies a non-trivial probability of the stock reaching those levels.

If you're panicked by this prospect while holding stock, I'd suggest protective strategies like a collar:
Buy $NVDA 20240823 115.0 PUT$ 
Sell weekly calls to finance the put premium

Near-term, it seems difficult for NVDA to break above 130.

If you want to conservatively bet against a decline, consider:

Sell NVDA 20240726 102 Puts
Buy NVDA 20240726 100 Puts

The heavy 726 100 put buying was likely tied to this put spread trade.

If you want to conservatively bet bullish, here's an approach:

Sell NVDA 20241018 100 Puts x3
Buy NVDA 20240920 150 Calls

Similar to the 0-cost Apple call strategy, selling 3 put legs to finance 1 call leg as a low-cost bullish speculation.

Alternatively, a bullish call spread can be deployed:

Buy NVDA 20240920 130 Calls
Sell NVDA 20240920 150 Calls x1.5

Selling 1.5x 150 calls to finance 130 call purchases.

Of these four strategies, I prefer the protective collar. The others can serve as price references - implying NVDA could trade in a 130-150 range with 100 as potential support but not an outright target.

$Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$
While NVDA flows appeared bearish, SOXL saw a notably bullish trade on Wednesday night:

Sell $SOXL 20260116 57.0 PUT$ 
Buy $SOXL 20260116 95.0 CALL$ 

The 95 call was likely the highest available strike for Jan 2026 expiry.

The put sale perfectly finances the bullish call purchase - a viable structure.

Of course, leveraged ETFs carry significant risk, so position sizing is crucial.

For other names:
Apple 220-230
Tesla 240-260

That covers this week's outlook.