To The Moon

Central Bank Movements and Market Reactions

• Bank of Japan Policy Shift

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) made headlines by raising its benchmark interest rate to around 0.25% from a range of 0% to 0.1%. Additionally, it announced plans to reduce its bond-buying pace to around ¥3 trillion ($19.6 billion) per month in Q1 2026. Governor Kazuo Ueda's decisive move towards policy normalization signals a significant shift from years of ultra-easy monetary policies, including negative interest rates that lasted until March. This hawkish tilt could mark a turning point for the yen as traders anticipate a narrowing of the US-Japan interest rate gap.

BoJ

• Federal Reserve's Stance

The BoJ’s actions come just before the US Federal Reserve's meeting, where officials are expected to keep the federal-funds rate unchanged at 5.25% to 5.5%. However, there are indications that the Fed might signal a potential rate cut in September, aligning with market expectations. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg anticipate no immediate change but closely watch for guidance from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

FOMC

Earnings Highlights and Market Reactions

• Diverse Earnings Reports

The busiest stretch of second-quarter earnings season is underway, with more than 150 S&P 500 companies reporting this week. Earnings are projected to be up 12% year-over-year, with companies generally beating estimates by typical margins. Key highlights from today include:

$Microsoft(MSFT)$ Post-market, Microsoft reported a 15% increase in revenue to $65 billion and an 11% rise in earnings per share to $2.95, both surpassing estimates. However, substantial capital expenditures for AI development—up more than 55% year-over-year—spooked investors, leading to a more than 5% drop in after-hours trading.

$MSFT

Big Tech stocks, particularly those with upcoming earnings reports, weighed heavily on the indexes. Notably, Microsoft’s and $Alphabet(GOOG)$ (Google's parent company) AI investments have raised concerns about high capital expenditures.

Today’s significant earnings reports include: Tech and Industrials: Albemarle, Altria Group, APA, Boeing, BorgWarner, Corteva, DuPont, eBay, Etsy, Everest Group, GE HealthCare Technologies, Generac Holdings, Hess, Humana, Ingersoll Rand, Lam Research, $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ , $Qualcomm(QCOM)$ T-Mobile U.S., Western Digital.

Calendar

1. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting: Expected to keep rates unchanged but with keen attention on potential September rate cut signals.

2. ADP National Employment Report: Forecasting an increase of 154,000 in private-sector employment, slightly above June’s figures.

3. ISM Chicago Business Barometer: Consensus calls for a reading of 44.5 for July, indicating a potential slowdown compared to June.

Conclusion

The market remains in a state of flux, influenced by central bank policy shifts and a deluge of earnings reports. The BoJ’s move towards normalization and the Fed’s potential rate cut signal underscore a pivotal moment for global markets. Investors must navigate these developments carefully, with a close eye on Big Tech earnings and economic indicators.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The views expressed are based on current market conditions and are subject to change. Investors should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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