To The Moon

In a landmark decision, a federal judge ruled that $Alphabet(GOOG)$'s payments to make its search engine the default on smartphone web browsers violate US antitrust law. This ruling marks a significant victory for the Justice Department in its ongoing battle against monopolistic practices in the tech industry.

Judge Amit Mehta's decision in Washington highlights that Google's $26 billion in payments effectively blocked other competitors from gaining a foothold in the market. This default positioning allowed Google to dominate the search engine landscape and maintain its position as the most-used search engine globally, driving over $300 billion in annual revenue primarily through search ads.

This ruling doesn't just impact Google; it reverberates through the tech ecosystem, particularly affecting $Apple(AAPL)$. Google pays Apple an estimated $18 billion to $20 billion annually to ensure its search engine remains the default on iOS devices. With the judge's decision, this arrangement is likely to change, potentially leading to significant shifts in the search engine market.

During the trial, it was revealed that making Google the default search engine discouraged users from exploring alternative search engines, thereby reinforcing Google's market dominance. The ruling suggests that this practice will no longer be permissible, which could lead to an increase in the adoption of other search engines. However, I'm skeptical about the extent of this potential change.

Although users have always had the option to change their default search engine with just a few taps, the vast majority chose not to, simply because Google offers a superior product. The convenience and familiarity of Google search have made it the preferred choice for most users.

Going forward, we might see an immediate choice screen when starting browsers like Safari, asking users to select their preferred search engine. Despite this, I believe millions of people will continue to choose Google. Personally, I still prefer Google search over other search engines due to its efficiency and comprehensive results.

Google is set to face another antitrust trial on September 9th, this time focused on its ad tech practices. The Department of Justice alleges that Google has illegally monopolized the digital ads market, boosting its profits while increasing costs for advertisers. Google argues that the DOJ's reasoning would stifle innovation, raise advertising fees, and hinder the growth of small businesses and publishers.

GOOG Daily Chart with key levels

The outcome of these trials will have profound implications for the tech industry and market competition. While the ruling against Google's default search engine payments is a significant step towards curbing monopolistic practices, the true impact on user behavior remains uncertain. I remain convinced that despite regulatory changes, Google will continue to be the search engine of choice for the majority of users due to its superior product.

What are your thoughts on this ruling and its potential impact? Do you prefer Google, or do you use another search engine?

Share your thoughts and let’s discuss the future of search engines in this new regulatory landscape.

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Disclaimer: This is a general analysis and not financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.