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August 26, 2024 – Market Commentary

Kia ora, discerning investors! As we edge closer to the much-anticipated NVIDIA earnings, let’s dissect today’s market action with the precision of a surgeon and the curiosity of a cat.

Starting with our protagonist, NVIDIA. The stock took a bit of a tumble today, down just over 2%. But let’s not get too dramatic; this pullback was almost as predictable as a plot twist in a soap opera. We were anticipating this dip, giving us an opportunity to swoop in at lower levels before earnings. Today’s action saw NVIDIA retreat into a lower channel, but not without a brief morning rally – a fleeting but profitable opportunity for the nimble trader.

The consolidation phase NVIDIA is currently navigating might seem ominous to some, but history has a habit of repeating itself. Last year, we saw similar dips just before earnings, and here we are again, holding our breath in this trough, hoping for a late surge before the report drops.

So, what’s the game plan? Ideally, we’re aiming for a pre-earnings push that will allow us to lock in some gains, rather than being left hanging at the mercy of post-earnings volatility – which, let’s face it, can be as unpredictable as a cat on catnip.

Looking beyond NVIDIA, the broader tech sector seems to be playing a game of “follow the leader.” Many semis mirrored NVIDIA’s performance today, with the NASDAQ stalling in a similar fashion. Will we see a bounce? That’s the million-dollar question.

Over in the land of cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin flirted with a rally before pulling back, keeping us on our toes. It’s still within the channel, but the next few days will be crucial to determine if Bitcoin is poised for a late August surge.

Now, let’s talk about the VIX. While it showed a slight uptick today, it wasn’t enough to induce any panic. The overall market was more ‘meh’ than meltdown, with sectors like software struggling to maintain their grip. Even the gold and crude markets seemed to take a breather.

As for the rest of the market, well, it was a mixed bag. The S&P and NASDAQ both stalled, with the Russell Small Cap and financials managing to hold their ground. In the biotech sector, the XBI stayed within its upper channel, offering a glimmer of hope.

In summary, the market seems to be in a holding pattern, waiting for NVIDIA to make its move. Will we see a pre-earnings rally or a deeper consolidation? Only time will tell. Just remember, with earnings predictions swinging wildly, it’s a bit of a coin flip.

Keep your wits about you, and stay nimble. The market is poised for action – it’s just a matter of when, not if.

Happy trading ahead. Cheers, BC 🍀

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