NVDA stops Jobs worry & falling Consumer confidence?
Market Jittery Agents.
Are the above 2 factors the reasons why US market had mixed performance in the past 2 days ?
It is almost as if they are contradicting each other.
According to new data released from the Conference Board on Tue, 27 Aug 2024 — Americans are growing wary of the job market amid continued signs labour demand is cooling, .
Consumer Confidence - August 2024.
The US Conference Board August consumer confidence report showed an uptick in confidence to 103.3 from July’s 101.9. (see above)
As noted by Conference Board, Chief economist Dana Peterson:
Consumer feelings were "mixed" as labour market worries increased.
Compared to July 2024, consumers were more positive about business conditions (current & future), but also more concerned about the labour market.
Consumers' assessments of current labour situation, while still positive, continued to weaken, and assessments of the labour market going forward were more pessimistic.
This likely reflects the recent increase in unemployment.
Consumers were also a bit less positive about future income.
The report also found consumers grew more wary of the stock market after early August sell-off, with less than half of consumers expecting stock prices to rise in the next year.
Inflation expectations, however, were more positive.
Year-ahead expectations for price increases falling to the lowest level since March 2020.
Confidence was also divided along demographic lines, with confidence in August falling for those under 35 and rising for those 35 and older.
In August 2024, the Conference Board found 32.8% of consumers said jobs were "plentiful," down from 33.4% in July.
Meanwhile, 16.4% of consumers said jobs were "hard to get," slightly up from 16.3.
US Unemployment - July 2024.
The report comes as recent economic data has shown softening in the labour market.
Unemployment rate in July 2024 hit 4.3%, its highest level in nearly 3 years, while US labour market added 114,000 jobs, the 2nd-lowest monthly total since 2020. (see above)
This was followed by an up revision to monthly employment additions released on 21 Aug 2024. (see above)
The release showed the US economy employed 818,000 fewer people than originally reported as of March 2024, indicating the labour market may have been cooling long before initially thought.
US Quit Rate - July 2024.
At the same time, July 2024 data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed the quits rate (considered a sign of confidence among workers), came in at 2.1%, its lowest level since August 2020. (see above)
Economists and the Fed have been more attentive to signs of weakening in the labour market over the past several weeks.
In a speech on Fri, 23 Aug 2024, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said:
Cooling in the labour market has been "unmistakeable".
Downside risks to the central bank's mandate for full employment have risen.
Seems unlikely that labour market will be a source of elevated inflationary pressures anytime soon.
The Fed do not seek or welcome further cooling in labour market conditions.
Non Farm Payroll.
Economists are waiting impatiently for US August 2024, non-farm payroll (NFP) report due out on 6 Sep 2024.
The report is a key indicator of whether recent signs of labour market weakness are worsening.
As of Tue, 27 Aug 2024, economists surveyed by Bloomberg are predicting the US labour market added 160,000 jobs, an increase from July’s NFP of 114,000 jobs.
At the same time, unemployment rate is expected to decline to 4.2% from July’s 4.3%.
Nvidia - Market Saviour ?
$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ will disclose its Q2 2024 earnings after market closes on Wed, 29 Aug 2024.
Primary focus will be on whether Nvidia continued to benefit from strong demand for AI-chips, a trend that saw the stock surge nearly +160% in value YTD.
Nvidia is considered as a bellwether for the AI industry, with any takeaways from its earnings, due later on Wednesday, likely to factor into Asian technology stocks.
Nvidia is a leading company in the AI industry.
Investors are watching its earnings report closely because it might affect both US equities post trading and Asian tech stocks performances on Thu, 29 August 2024 morning.
Should NVDA exceeds Wall Street forecasts, there might be new “highs” being charted. Conversely, it might be free fall from $128.30 (tuesday closing price). Think it’s more of the former though.
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