$NVDA 自定义 240920 110.0P/140.0C/145.0C$
Selling aggressive iron condor.
Based on weekly chart, bet on volatility between 90 and 140. Enter by selling 110 put, and shorting 140/145 call spread for a premium of 4.14.
Upside risk 5 - 4.14 = 0.86, with a risk-reward of 4.14/0.86 = 4.81.
Downside move is considered as a long-term position, with a cost basis of 110 - 4.14 = 105.86. Since plan to long at 100, the additional 5.86 is viewed as downside risk, giving a risk-reward of 4.14/5.86 = 0.71.
The arithmetic average risk-reward is (4.81 + 0.71) / 2 = 2.76.
Given the high probability of success, open 3x position, get 4.14×300=1242 premium with BPR 11000＋, 1/7 liquidity, expired in 17days.
Expected return 1242/12000(17/365)=222% in the best scenario.
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Wow… a little bit complicated. But thx for sharing
Nvidia will drop below 100…