Rate Cuts = Recession? Share Your Clues on Whether a Recession is Coming! 🤔

MillionaireTiger
09-19

Welcome to Thursday Special![LOL]

Rate Cuts = Recession? Drop a clue for whether you think a recession is coming or not! 🤔

On Fed day, Jerome Powell doubled down on the “soft landing” narrative during his press conference.

Key highlights:

We’re officially in a rate-cutting cycle—though Powell called it a "recalibration": “We have in fact begun the cutting cycle now.”

Inflation expectations dropped, while economic growth is expected to slow slightly in 2024 but stay steady through 2027.

Unemployment? It’s forecasted to rise a bit, but nothing too alarming, suggesting the Fed still believes in a soft landing.

As for the markets, stocks, gold, bonds, and more initially surged, only to reverse course during Powell’s talk. Some analysts fear that a 50 bp cut might be a red flag for the economy and markets. 😬

So, what’s your take? Spot any recession signals? 🚨

Here’s a fun one:

$Costco(COST)$ raised the price of their iconic hotdog combo from $1.50 to $1.99! Inflation much? 😅

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Comment（17）

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  • MHh
    ·09-19
    TOP
    Recession is coming. Remember when Powell refused to increase rates and kept saying everything is under control? It is happening again but he learned his lesson a little. He is behind the curve again and so he compensated for it by giving a bigger rate cut. [LOL]sometimes, once the boat is missed, it is just too late. Unemployment is higher already. So I do believe we will see recession next year.
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  • Star in the Sky
    ·09-23
    Rate Cuts = Recession? Who knows? Since late 2022, many " experts have predicted recession , but 2025 is coming yet the real recession still haven't knocked the door... another cry wolf call again.. But this is another excuses to let the market fluctuate for traders and Fund managers.
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  • nomadic_m
    ·09-19
    Recession is near when:

    - Your barista knows more about cryptocurrency than coffee.
    - Your neighbor's lawn is perfectly manicured, but their house is for sale.
    - The only thing growing faster than your savings is your beard (because you can't afford a haircut)!

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  • highhand
    ·09-19
    Sahm rule outdated. it's a lagging indicator. now economy so strong, earnings growing, GDP positive and not even near zero, don't say consecutive 2 qtrs negative growth. Where got recession??? get ready for all time highs and tech stocks growing.
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  • Universe宇宙
    ·09-19
    @TigerGPT does the everlasting wars in the middle east and east europe reflect that the recession is here? [Thinking]
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    • TigerGPT: 

      Based on the news articles I found, there is no direct correlation between the everlasting wars in the Middle East and East Europe and the occurrence of a recession. The articles mainly focus on the following points:

      Airlines Suspending Flights: Concerns over a wider conflict in the Middle East have prompted international airlines to suspend flights to the region or avoid affected airports. This is a precautionary measure due to the increased tensions in the area. (Source: FACTBOX-Airlines suspend flights as Middle East tensions rise)

        

      Middle East Violence and Energy Prices: Shares of energy companies rose alongside crude-oil futures amid more violence in the Middle East. This is due to the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, which has led to increased demand for oil. (Source: Energy Climbs With Oil Futures Amid Middle East Violence - Energy Roundup)

        

      Economic Challenges in the Middle East and North Africa: Some countries in the Middle East and North Africa have been facing economic challenges, including rising import prices, capital outflows, and falling growth. These challenges are not directly linked to the wars but are part of the wider economic situation in the region. (Source: Value for money: Why and how Europeans should support the failing economies of Egypt and Tunisia)

        

      Inflation Drivers: The sharp rise in prices in the US and Europe since 2021 is primarily driven by unexpectedly strong demand forces, rather than supply chain disruptions or increasing energy costs. This indicates that inflation is influenced by demand factors rather than the wars in the Middle East and East Europe. (Source: The drivers of post-pandemic inflation)

        

      Regarding the situation in East Europe, I found a research paper that investigates the resilience of Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European (CESEE) countries during the European Central Bank's monetary cycles. This paper does not provide direct information about the impact of the wars on the recession. (Source: The Resilience of Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) Countries During ECB's Monetary Cycles)

      In summary, while the wars in the Middle East and East Europe may have geopolitical and economic implications, there is no direct evidence to suggest that they reflect the occurrence of a recession. The occurrence of a recession depends on various factors, including global economic conditions, monetary policies, and market dynamics.

      Please note that the information provided above is for reference purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. It is always recommended to conduct thorough research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

      If you have any more specific questions or need further information, please let me know!

      09-19
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  • ADguynight
    ·09-19

    US retail sale numbers rose and are set to rise higher with the holiday season.

    Unemployment numbers are 4.2, falling from 4.3 a month earlier

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  • Universe宇宙
    ·09-19
    @TigerGPT does the increase of COE price in Singapore reflect that the recession is here? [Chuckle]
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    • TigerGPT: 

      According to recent news articles, the Certificate of Entitlement (COE) prices in Singapore have increased. The price of a Category A COE, which is for smaller and less powerful cars and electric vehicles (EVs), rose to $98,524, marking a 2.1% increase compared to the previous exercise on September 4th. Additionally, the open category COE reached a record high of $113,104.

      While the increase in COE prices may indicate higher demand for cars in Singapore, it does not necessarily reflect that a recession is imminent. COE prices are influenced by factors such as supply and demand dynamics, government policies, and economic conditions in the automotive industry. It is important to consider a wide range of economic indicators and data to assess the possibility of a recession.

      For more comprehensive information on the state of the economy and potential recession signals, I recommend reviewing economic indicators, such as GDP growth, employment rates, consumer spending, and business investment. Additionally, analyzing central bank policies, interest rates, and geopolitical developments can provide insights into the overall economic outlook.

      Please note that the information provided is for reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Economic conditions can be complex and multifaceted, so it is recommended to consult with a financial advisor or conduct further research before making any investment decisions.

      09-19
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  • SPOT_ON
    ·09-19
    how to spot recession? as stock market often will dive 6 months before any true / genuine recession is reported

    @MHh
    @Success88
    @melson

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  • VivianLau
    ·09-19

    All the toilet paper I was buying started filling up my apartment

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    • nomadic_m: 
      lol good one there. thanks for the reminder to stock up. no expiry date for toilet paper 🧻
      09-19
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  • Success88
    ·09-19
    Recession is near when you see the market down at lease 10% from now. It will go into bearish mode
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  • Olivia Bruce
    ·09-19

    I am getting the feeling that market going to tank next 2 days since seeing too many bullish posts

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  • MasterStonker
    ·09-19
    We have been discussing recession for the last 3 years.
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  • PaulSam
    ·09-19

    Another fun one:

    Is this a recession indicator?

    ImageImage

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