So far the data (new home sales) has been looking good, we expect to see a less stellar jobless claim report today at 8.30pm SGT.
The tag of war between bulls and bears will continue until late Oct as businesses and consumers will slowly take in the effect of the latest 50BPS cut. More violatility would be expected if job data didn't stabilize by late Oct.
With that in mind, the market is gradually pricing in the winning odds of a soft landing and will continue to rise. We would advise caution when everyone is partying to their profits during the rallies.
In this chart, sorted by RSI, we can see which stocks are already closed to overbought. We are not predicting price action as we foresee some stocks hitting new hits by end of year or start of next year. In terms of RSI, AMD, TSM, AVGO are all over 75points now. TSM still has an attractive PE ratio for further gains. NVDA and ARM are edging up as we see NVDA hitting $140 again if this momentum continue.
We caution that the market might enter correction again if the soft landing expectation is too high and too fast, but for now there is still room for rallies. We anticipate RSIs to hit into mid-to-high 80, and for some to enter 90 if the rallies continue.
Modify on 2024-09-26 18:23
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- DrewStrong·09-26Great analysis1Report