US Market Close High in Sept with Non-Inflationary Report?
US Market - Wednesday.
US stocks lost steam on Wed, 25 Sep 2024 - after markets hit all-time highs, with the three major gauges closing mixed.
This came about as investors again became concerned about :
The health of US economy.
The chances of another jumbo interest rate cut.
By the time, 4pm came around: (see above)
DJIA: -0.70% (-293.47 to 41,914.75).
S&P 500: -0.19% (-10.67 to 5,722.26).
Nasdaq: +0.04% (+7.68 to 18,082.21).
CB Consumer Confidence (Sep 2024).
Concern about health of US economy surfaced due to a surprisingly weak reading on consumer confidence. (see below)
Consumer confidence for September 2024, tumbled as Americans grew increasingly worried about a cooling labour market.
Latest Conference Board index reading came in at 98.7:
Below August’s 105.6.
And lower than 104 economists’ expectations, surveyed by Bloomberg.
According to Conference Board, latest reading is the largest decline since August 2021, incidentally.
Conference Board, Chief economist - Dana Peterson assessment is "Consumers were:
More pessimistic about future labour market conditions.
Less positive about future business conditions and future income.
Minor Report - New Home Sales.
New home sales for August 2024 dipped by -4.66% to 716,000, following a sharp increase in July (751,000) as (a) ultra-high mortgage rates and (b) lofty prices have kept buyers on the sidelines, mostly. (see above)
New Home sales report re-affirmed:
Consumer’s falling confidence.
Consumers’ anticipation of an impending FOMC interest cut.
One More Inflation Report.
In my 23 Sep 2024 post - “Jittery US Market affects MU stock price ?“ (click here ! to read & Repost), I have mentioned that investors & analysts will be closely watching the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation report.
As I have mentioned previously, CPI data is used to create the PCE report. Re-looking at August’s CPI again:
Headline Inflation.
CPI (MoM) was 0.2%, inline with forecast and unchanged from July’s CPI (MoM).
CPI (YoY) was 2.5%, inline with forecast and -0.4% lower than July’s CPI of 2.9%.
Core Inflation.
Core CPI (MoM) was 0.3%. It was +0.1% higher than analysts’ estimates (0.2%) and July’s core inflation (0.2%).
Core CPI (YoY) was 3.2%. It’s same as analysts’ estimates and unchanged from July’s core inflation.
PCE Deduction.
It is likely that PCE for August 2024 will either remain status quo (2.6%) or uptick marginally (2.7%)
Can a non-inflationary PCE report boost the US market to a strong close for September 2024 ?
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Do you think PCE report for August 2024 will be better or worse than July 2024 ?
Do you think a non-inflationary August data will help propel US market to end September on a “high”?
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