Nvidia's Next All-Time High : Here Yet?
Post Mortem.
On 10 Jun 2024, $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ undergone a forward 10-for-1 stock split.
Upon split, its adjusted stock price was $120.87 per share.
Post split, Nvidia stock price and US market have experienced turbulence.
And it did not manage to stay put at or above its split price. (see below)
Despite registering a short-term bearish sentiment, a stock trading expert has:
Highlighted that investors should anticipate a possible record high for the AI-chip maker.
Cited the stock’s (a) technical setup and (b) other internal fundamentals.
“Veteran” Weigh In.
On 22 Sep 2024, a chart expert named CyclesFan shared in “X”, that Nvidia stock might go up soon.
He has been looking at Nvidia’s True Strength Indicator (TSI) in the stock’s Weekly chart. (see below)
The chart has:
Displayed a “double bottom” formation.
Technically, a good sign of things to come - an upcoming bullish move.
**Note: While the formation suggests that Nvidia may have bottomed in the intermediate term, CyclesFan warned that the TSI has not made a bullish crossover.
TSI purpose:
Simply put, the TSI is a momentum-based technical indicator used to identify
The strength in a stock price.
Direction of a trend in a stock price.
The “double-bottom” chart pattern generally looks like the letter W, marking two price lows (bottoms) and three reversal points.
Technical Whereabout:
Currently, Nvidia is trading within the upper band of the Bollinger Bands (BB), suggesting some near-term support and resistance levels for traders to watch.
Nvidia is moving within the upper band, indicating a relatively high price volatility.
However, it has not yet broken past the upper band’s resistance, suggesting that upside potential remains short-lived.
According to CyclesFan, Nvidia may experience some volatility in the coming weeks until the bullish signal materializes.
Looking ahead, CyclesFan predicted that Nvidia will not achieve a new all-time high before its next earnings report in late November.
The stock’s next major upward push is likely tied to its earnings performance, and investors will have to wait until then for a clearer signal.
“A bullish crossover will confirm that it made an intermediate term low in August. A new all-time high will not happen before its next earnings in late November,” CyclesFan noted.
Quarterly Earnings - Predictions.
Nvidia is anticipating increased revenue for Q3 2024, when the company has confirmed sustained demand for its AI chips.
The technology giant is forecasting a Q3 gross margin of +75%, while it expects revenue to come in at $32.5 billion, in line (primarily) with market estimates.
Historically, impressive earnings results can act as a catalyst for a stock rally.
This was not the case for Nvidia after releasing its Q2 report though, despite reported revenue growth of +122% YoY at $30.04 billion.
The stock reacted negatively, dipping by about -6%, resulting in a struggle to reclaim the $120 resistance level.
Indeed, Nvidia is experiencing short-term volatility.
It failed to capitalize on the recent market rally inspired by the Fed’s interest rate cut.
The stock appears to have stalled, leading to questions about whether NVDA has lost the momentum it experienced in recent months, fueled by the company’s venture into the AI scene.
Long-term Outlook
Coincidentally, on 22 Sep 2024 another analyst named “Market Maestro”, in a X post, acknowledged that the current correction phase is characterized by:
A triple-top pattern. and
Notable negative divergence in its relative strength index (RSI).
Observation:
He noted that after reaching the Fibonacci 78% retracement level at $129, the stock had shown declining strength, raising concerns about further short-term downward movement.
However, his long-term bullish target for Nvidia remains intact.
The analyst expects the stock to bounce back toward $150 after retesting what he termed a ‘buy zone’ at the 12-week exponential moving average, which sits around $92.
Naysayers’ Consensus.
One of the prevailing concerns from Nvidia skeptics is it’s dominance in the AI scene might end.
This will likely impact the share price, considering new players are entering the scene.
For instance, Citibank analyst warned that the AI winning streak might fizzle out, citing the stock decline after the last earnings results as a warning signal.
As a result, Citi’s analyst Atik Malik warned that Nvidia might be replaced by $Apple(AAPL)$ as the top AI stock.
Given that features such as Apple Intelligence set to be integrated into its products, namely - Mobile phone, Watch, Tablets and Laptops.
Elsewhere, a review of Nvidia’s stock price indicates that the equity ended the latest trading session valued at $116, down about -1.5% for the day. (see above)
The short-term bearishness is highlighted on the stock’s monthly chart, where NVDA is down over -10%.
In conclusion, analysts remain divided on the stock’s near-term prospects, while Nvidia faces short-term volatility.
As the company approaches its next quarterly earnings report, investors must closely watch for clearer signals on whether the stock can regain its upward trajectory or face further downward pressure.
My viewpoints : (mine only)
The post failed to mention that it was Nvidia’s Q3 2025 outlook that disappointed investors. (see above)
Causing stock price to dip after earnings reporting.
Just when things were looking better towards end July 2024, the drastic -36% fall in US non-farm payroll (July 2024) when compared to June’s data, incited fear of impending recession.
Another factor the post failed to mention was Nvidia’s “too fantastic” previous quarters’ earnings.
In the last 3 consecutive quarters (Q3 2024, Q1 2025 & Q2 2025), Nvidia recorded revenue growth of > +200%.
This capacity to surpass Wall Street’s estimates is at increasingly greater risk as each success prompts Wall Street to raise its targets even higher.
As mentioned in my previous post (click here ! to read and Repost), I believed Nvidia will remain on the pole position for a while longer as there are no direct competitors for now.
$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ is not quite there yet.
$Intel(INTC)$ is too embroiled in its internal issues to mount any challenge in the near future.
Until the newbie “Cerebras” is ready to go big via IPO, that will take time for all required filings & processings, - Nvidia is “safe” easily for another 6 months.
With $Micron Technology(MU)$ reported stellar quarter earnings on Wed, 25 Sep 2024 that exceeded Wall Street analysts’ estimates, this bodes well for Nvidia in return.
This is because Micron is direct supplier of memory chips to Nvidia. By inference if Micron is doing well, it should be safe to assume that demand for Nvidia’s AI-chip is healthy as well.
Has Nvidia’s extreme success been the cause for its “fall from shame”? Shame of failing to meet Wall Street baseless expectations ? Is that about to change given MU’s successful quarter earnings?
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Do you think Nvidia will be able to turn things around soon, given a euphoric US market of late ?
Do you think the time for Nvidia’s recovery will be in November 2024 after its next quarterly earnings report ?
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