To The Moon

Despite the upcoming non-farm payrolls data next Friday, the price action suggests the National Day rally shouldn't face major hurdles, so feel free to enjoy the holidays.

$Nvidia (NVDA)$
Next week's trading range is expected to be $110-$130.

Institutions sold covered calls at the $130 strike: $NVDA 20241004 130.0 CALL$ 
In line with this range, I sold $110 puts and $130 calls.

$Tesla (TSLA)$
The source of conviction for a National Day rally. Let me first apologize to the Goldman analyst I wrongly criticized earlier - Tesla's price action next week could unexpectedly impress.

For their covered call roll, institutions selected an aggressive $277.5 strike: $TSLA 20241004 277.5 CALL$ , likely factoring in a delivery report boost in early October. Selecting such a high strike is quite a show of faith in Musk.

Beyond the covered call roll, there were other aggressively bullish flows:

An outright call roll to the $255 strike: $TSLA 20241115 255.0 CALL$ . This trader closed a $240 call winner last week, demonstrating accurate bullish foresight.

At-the-money put sales:
Sold $TSLA 20241004 260.0 PUT$  for next week
Sold $TSLA 20241220 270.0 PUT$  for December

The above bullish flows don't conflict with the $260/$270 call sales I mentioned for 10/11 expiry. Perhaps after the delivery numbers, Tesla pulls back. But Musk may also want to gift a National Day rally.

$Pinduoduo (PDD)$
Longer-term target of $150, but likely capped at $144 next week:

Bought $PDD 20241115 150.0 CALL$  for November

Sold $PDD 20241004 144.0 CALL$  for next week's expiry

$iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI)$
No notable bearish flows currently.

Two bullish positioning strategies:

1. Covered stock holding:

   • Hold FXI shares

   • Sell $FXI 20241115 37.0 CALL$ 

2. Bullish risk reversal:

   • Sell $FXI 20241220 28.0 PUT$ 

   • Buy $FXI 20241220 34.0 CALL$ 

   • Sell $FXI 20241220 38.0 CALL$