To The Moon

Robotaxi, Humanoid Robots...

Will $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ unveil the much-anticipated robotaxi by Wall Street at this conference?

What major updates can we expect for humanoid robots, FSD full self-driving, and new models?

As the Tesla Robotaxi Day event on October 10th approaches, the global spotlight once again focuses on the latest technological trends of this electric vehicle giant. Musk previously referred to it as "historic" and potentially "the biggest event in the company's history."

On October 7th, Bernstein analysts A.M. (Toni) Sacconaghi, Jr. and Daniel Zhu released a report stating that they expect $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ to demonstrate a dedicated robotaxi and ride-hailing app during the Robotaxi Day, provide the latest news on the progress and roadmap of FSD 12.5, and announce the start of robotaxi trials in one or more cities.

At the same time, Tesla may also provide more details about its new "Model 2.5" and the latest news on its Optimus robot. However, it is unlikely to provide the latest news on its low-cost Model 2 or the latest news on its Tesla Semi.

Bernstein believes that Tesla's Robotaxi Day is of great significance, but given the company's history of "over-optimism," especially Musk's admission that he was "over-optimistic about the development of FSD (full self-driving technology)," there may still be significant issues in the details of these projects.

To this end, Bernstein analysts have listed the top ten key questions.

1. Showcase of the Robotaxi Cybercab The robotaxi is the biggest highlight of this Robotaxi Day.

Initially, Tesla announced the "We, Robot" event on April 5th, and Musk suddenly posted on X, announcing in a blockbuster post, "Tesla's robotaxi will be released on August 8th." Apart from that, Tesla did not announce any other news.

Bernstein expects the company to showcase its prototype dedicated to autonomous driving, codenamed "Cybercab," on October 10th. In fact, as early as before this year, Tesla proposed the concept of a small two-seater car, which is teardrop-shaped and has no steering wheel.

It is reported that its test vehicle has already been tested in Los Angeles. Although heavily disguised, its shape seems to meet the expectations of a two-door car.

2. Demonstration of the specially built "Ride-Hailing APP" Previously

Tesla has demonstrated a model of its robotaxi ride-hailing app, named "Fleet Management Solution," which includes functions such as "summoning" cars and estimating waiting times. Car owners can also add or remove private cars, which looks like a hybrid of Airbnb and Uber.

Bernstein believes that Tesla may demonstrate the APP and these features:

"Including calling and riding a robotaxi (and possibly other Tesla vehicles) at the event site - it is reported that Tesla has drawn a detailed map for the event."

3.Update on the progress and roadmap of Full Self-Driving (FSD)

Bernstein points out that L4-level autonomous driving is a clear prerequisite for a true robotaxi service, while Tesla's current FSD service is still at the L2+ level.

Currently, the industry generally adopts the classification standard of autonomous driving systems released by the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE), with six levels from L0 to L5, where L0 means the vehicle has no automation at all, and L5 means the vehicle has fully autonomous driving. At present, the vast majority of vehicles' autonomous driving functions are at the L2 level.

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ previously stated that it has accelerated the progress of FSD capabilities:

"Based on the current trend, it seems that we should be able to increase the mileage between two manual interventions to a level high enough to far exceed humans, to the point where unsupervised autonomous driving may be achieved before the end of this year."

The company also stated that it has formulated an FSD release roadmap, including the launch of FSD v13 in October, claiming that "the mileage required for intervention has increased by about six times."

Therefore, Bernstein believes:

"Tesla may provide updates on FSD progress, possibly including an updated roadmap, the release of FSD v13, and/or the launch of FSD in China."

4. Regulatory approval difficulties, most likely to conduct driverless testing in Texas

Bernstein's report points out that Tesla lags behind competitors in regulatory approval. The company currently does not conduct driverless testing, while Google's Waymo has been doing so since 2017.

However, there are some jurisdictions with relatively fewer initial barriers to self-certification and the start of driverless testing (although there are stricter requirements for the actual deployment of commercial robotaxis), including Texas, where Waymo, Cruise, and Zoox operate or plan to operate robotaxis in Austin.

It is worth noting that Austin is also the location of Tesla's headquarters. Therefore, the analysis believes that Tesla is very likely to announce driverless testing in one or more cities, most likely in Texas, but possibly elsewhere.

5. See more details of the new model

In the first quarter's earnings call, Tesla announced that it would launch a new model by the end of 2024 or early 2025, which was later changed to the first half of 2025 in the second quarter's call.

At the same time, Tesla also converged its ambitions, stating that it would not use revolutionary next-generation manufacturing processes to build these models, but would instead build the new models on Tesla's existing production lines - more like a "Model 2.5."

Tesla also showcased the contours of three new models at its shareholder meeting, one of which may be the Cybercab, and the other two may be a van and a sedan. Analysts believe that Tesla is unlikely to start production before the end of the year and may not be able to mass-produce until the end of 2025. However, analysts also stated:

"We believe Tesla may announce or provide more details about the upcoming Model 2.5 at the event on October 10th."

6.Update on Optimus's progress

Musk previously stated that Tesla's long-term future is centered around the Optimus (Optimus Prime) humanoid robot:

"I believe the long-term value of Optimus will exceed the sum of all other Tesla products."

However, since the release of Optimus in 2022, the company has hardly provided any relevant progress updates. Despite this, Bernstein still believes that Tesla may have updated Optimus's progress, and its event tagline "We, Robot" may suggest that Tesla plans to include such updates.

7. It is unlikely to disclose the latest news on production processes

At last year's investor day in March, the focus was on the manufacturing process of Tesla's next-generation platform. It is reported that this platform will adopt a brand-new process to significantly reduce costs by 50% and help Tesla achieve its goal of 20 million vehicles per year.

For this event, Bernstein believes that, given rumors that Cybercab will be based on an out-of-the-box assembly process, but Tesla has not yet shared details about Model 2.5, and the model is scheduled to go into production within the next 8 months. Therefore, Tesla may focus on its recent new product launches and postpone the disclosure of details about Model 2.

8. Conduct robotaxi trials in China

China's robotaxi field has many major players, including Baidu's Apollo, Pony.AI, WeRide, AutoX, and Didi, among others.

In addition, given that Tesla has not yet been approved to launch L2 solutions like FSD, Bernstein believes that the company may need to launch FSD in China before it can start robotaxi trials.

9.Tesla Semi updates remain uncertain

After seeing Tesla Semi (Tesla's electric semi-truck) equipped with what appears to be a rooftop LiDAR sensor suite, the topic of Tesla Semi has become active again in blog circles, which in turn has sparked speculation that this event may include updates on Tesla Semi.

However, Bernstein notes that most of Tesla Semi is still in the testing phase and will not go into mass production before March 2026. Therefore, analysts remain cautious about whether Tesla will make significant updates to Semi.

10. Other issues investors should consider

• Does Tesla believe that its pure camera system can mimic or surpass the safety records of existing LiDAR and radar systems? Does it think LiDAR is necessary for FSD?

• Will FSD 12.5 and future software versions be backward compatible with Tesla's entire installed base, and when will it be achieved? Can Tesla guarantee to all Tesla owners that their hardware will be able to run the latest FSD version in the future?

• Why hasn't Tesla disclosed details of accidents and manual interventions to regulatory agencies? Does it plan to do so, and if so, when will it do so?

• What is the timeline and process for regulatory approval of autonomous taxi services (with and without human intervention) in the United States and outside the United States?

• To what extent will Tesla implement centralized manual monitoring for its autonomous taxi service? (For example, how many vehicles are supervised by each supervisor?) What happens if an autonomous taxi has an accident and requires active driving/taking over control?

• Who will provide insurance for Tesla and third-party autonomous taxis? Who will provide insurance for Tesla owners who include their vehicles in Tesla's autonomous taxi