To The Moon

$Nvidia (NVDA)$

Nvidia has exhibited remarkable control over its share price the past two weeks, closing at $138 on 10/18 and $141.54 on 10/25 - right at or just below the strikes that institutions were heavily selling calls against.

This week, the institutional covered call strategy is:
Sell $NVDA 20241101 147.0 CALL$ 
Buy $NVDA 20241101 155.0 CALL$  with 90,000 contracts each

The strong results from Tesla and Netflix kicked off earnings season on a positive note. There tends to be a correlated move, either up or down, during peak earnings weeks. Combined with dealers raising their strike prices, it appears downside is limited for Nvidia this week.

My personal covered call/put sale strikes are $155/$130:
Sell $NVDA 20241101 155.0 CALL$ 
Sell $NVDA 20241101 130.0 PUT$ 
The $155 calls don't have much premium left, so I may wait a day or two for shares to rise before selling.

If Nvidia continues rallying this week, does that imply solid results are ahead for AMD as well?

Currently, AMD and Nvidia have been diverging, with AMD trading more like a traditional chip stock. For AI/ML workloads core to cutting-edge R&D and defense projects, enterprises prioritize the leadership Nvidia provides over AMD as a second option. AMD's upside may become more apparent as AI goes more mainstream.

Based on past earnings reactions, AMD hasn't been an ideal stock to simply buy calls into the event. Share price movement leading into the report provides little predictive edge, often gapping in the opposite direction of overnight moves. Call or put buyers need to take profits quickly before implied volatility crush. Selling premium against a rangebound move makes more sense.

Assuming this quarter's move stays within 12.5%, the $140 put sale could make sense:
Sell $AMD 20241101 140.0 PUT$ 

I'll likely avoid call sales this cycle given the extent to which semiconductor stocks have outperformed.

There was a noteworthy 1,505 contract $220 call buy for $7.3M in premium:
Buy $AMD 20250417 220.0 CALL$ 

A similar trade emerged in Amazon, with 2,115 contracts bought on the $235 calls for $8.3M:
Buy $AMZN 20250417 235.0 CALL$ 

Suspecting these may have been the same trader getting long calls in both names.

$Google (GOOG)$ could be one to avoid based on a potentially bearish 12,000 contract put buy that printed on Friday with a retail-esque spread:
Buy $GOOG 20241101 155.0 PUT$ 

Potential insider knowledge on this one.

Lastly, here are some noteworthy bullish option trades over 10,000 contracts:

These printed as single large trades over 10,000 contracts, typically indicative of institutional interest, though only around 55% accurate:

$LYFT 20250620 20.0 CALL$ 
$WFC 20241220 70.0 CALL$