To The Moon

$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ Q3 overall results, revenue & profit are in line with and slightly exceeded expectations

1. 29.5% year-on-year growth in the client side out of the trough, data center in the AI-driven CPU and GPU shipments increased market share and hit a new high;

2. the operating expense side of the business was relatively stable and profits rebounded;

Down 7% after hours, still mostly unhappy with guidance.

1. Q4 revenue guidance of $7.2-$7.8bn, median $7.5bn lower than Consensus' $7.55bn; gross margin guidance of 54% also smaller than Consensus' 54.21%;

2. guidance for data centers (AI gas pedals) was raised from $4.5 billion to $5.0 billion, but the market expects a bigger boost amid Nvidia's supply relief;

3. the embedded and gaming businesses remain down year-over-year, and consumer industrial demand continues to be weak.

Why so cautious on guidance?

1. probably still cautious on the recovery of gaming, point consumer electronics, and uncertainty about the competition after Intel's transition despite CPU market share gains;

2. the data center business again record high important reason, is the core cloud vendors ( $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ ) overall still maintain a high capital expenditure, but does not mean that in 2025 can still maintain or grow capital expenditure (or may even shrink), theAnd most of the orders are growing with $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ more saturated, once Nvidia's capacity is restored, the head cloud vendors may still prefer Nvidia while there is still a gap in technology.

3. The current valuation does not allow AMD out in a relatively comfortable tendency, the next six months to a year, still may fluctuate back and forth.