To The Moon

Ah, telling me about discounts after I've already placed my orders.

Although the sell-off was rather abrupt, I still view it as pre-emptive risk release. The longer-term uptrend remains intact, providing dip-buying opportunities.

$Apple (AAPL)$
I was second-guessing my $230 put sale from earlier this week as too aggressive. Someone paid over $2 million to buy those $230 puts at the open, essentially fading my position:
Buy $AAPL 20241122 230.0 PUT$ 

Ultimately it may not matter if earnings disappoint, as a rebound could materialize post U.S. election next week.

The initial expectation was a rally into the vote, then a sell-off. But the reverse script of a pullback first, followed by a celebratory inaugural bounce could also play out, reminiscent of 2016.

$Amazon (AMZN)$
Options are pricing a 6.2% earnings move, establishing a $175-$195 expected trading range. The elevated implied volatility sets up well for a strangle sale.

$Intel (INTC)$
The former semiconductor juggernaut has devolved into a mere toothpaste company, so I'm staying away. That said, Wednesday did see a bullish 23,000 contract buy in the December $35 calls:
Buy $INTC 20241220 35.0 CALL$ 

Worth flagging in case any significant incremental information surfaces.

Ah, let me share some thoughts on yesterday's ill-timed earnings forecasts.

This entire cycle's event flows carried an underlying stench of mispriced risk. Ahead of META's print, one trader paid $3.86 million in premium buying 520 puts, effectively positioning for a 12% crash:
Buy $META 20241115 520.0 PUT$ 

META only fell 2.8% in reaction, and those puts remain open.

Then at Thursday's open, another $5.7 million wager printed buying 565 puts:
Buy $META 20241122 565.0 PUT$ 

Whenever those contracts are inevitably closed will likely mark this selloff's nadir.

MSFT and META truly traded places this week.

I was very convicted in recommending put sales into MSFT earnings, expecting any initial weakness to be quickly unwound if $430 was breached. Instead, selling intensified.

Countering that put flow, institutions accumulated over 15,500 of the March 2025 $465 calls ahead of the event:
Buy $MSFT 20250321 465.0 CALL$ 

MSFT has strong support at $400. The current pullback provides an attractive entry for put sales, with the $385 annual lows as a reasonable strike.

The $Coinbase (COIN)$ earnings reaction took an even more bizarre turn. That 22,000 contract $220 call position I referenced last week rolled on the eve of the report, adjusting down to 21,500 contracts in the November $215 calls:
Roll $COIN 20241220 220.0 CALL$  -> $COIN 20241115 215.0 CALL$ 

Reviewing time-and-sales indicates this roll transpired extremely rapidly, under 24 hours. While maintaining a similar contract size, the lower strike and nearer-dated series translated into a meaningful reduction in dollar value.

This urgency signaled deteriorating conviction in the upside thesis ahead of results, which ultimately disappointed.

Some may question why not simply close the position? These types of flows often represent institutional hedges facilitating client stock exposure.

$Nvidia (NVDA)$
Dealers establishing weekly positioning strategies opted to roll their NVDA call spreads today, selling upside exposure by going higher in strike:

Sell $NVDA 20241108 140.0 CALL$ 
Buy $NVDA 20241108 147.0 CALL$ 

This structure anticipates NVDA remaining capped below $140 through next Friday's expiration.

I mimicked this roll but sold the higher $147 strike instead:
Sell $NVDA 20241108 147.0 CALL$ 

Given NVDA's proclivity for volatility expansions, avoiding assignment by staying ahead of spot provides prudent protection despite forfeiting some potential premium capture.

No noticeable put buying was detected, suggesting this selloff is mere consolidation rather than a calculated ambush. Disappointing in terms of failing new highs, but not outright disastrous either.

Lastly, sharing multi-listed institutional put sales exceeding 10,000 contracts (general sale-side skew but can be insightful):

Sell $HOOD 20241101 34.0 CALL$  for 22,500 contracts

Sell $AFRM 20241101 43.0 PUT$  for 10,700 contracts

Sell $SNAP 20241220 13.0 CALL$  for 10,000 contracts

Sell $MCD 20241220 275.0 PUT$  for 9,754 contracts