To The Moon

The much-anticipated U.S. election finally revealed its outcome last week: although Trump seems to be very close to Harris in traditional polls, it actually ended with Trump's big victory.

With the second entry of this old acquaintance, the capital market also began to give some feedback. So what assets and changes are worth watching for us?

About the crypto market

There is no doubt that this is the strongest variety after the news that Trump is about to take office. Mainstream coins represented by Bitcoin and a number of altcoins have experienced huge gains in just one week.

On the one hand, Trump showed the characteristics of a pro-crypto market during the election campaign; on the other hand, his main election assistant, Musk, is also very keen to "shout" on social media.

Although we were optimistic about the market before, it may be a bit problematic if we think that a violent bull market is coming. Regarding Bitcoin, structurally, the delay in breaking through in the previous months is more like waiting for the final wave.

In terms of price pattern, 85000-95000 is the target position of this round of market. If we look at this morning's high point, its space is only 10-20%. If we enter the market without a sharp correction, the risk price ratio is not good.

We now guess that if the market continues to triumph, then after Trump officially enters the White House next month, there may be a situation of "good cash turns bad". Of course, this piece will need more price changes to confirm, and we will continue to follow up at that time.

About Gold

As Biden's old troika, gold is obviously the fastest one to drop the chain, which is naturally related to its early price. With the sharp decline last week, the price of gold has begun to gradually fall below the trend channel, and it also has obvious characteristics of closing when it is good on the daily line.

If our previous attitude towards gold was just to sell on rallies and refuse to short, then once the market breaks through the key support of 2650/2618 again, then finding the second high point and shorting "against the trend" may be officially put on the agenda. In addition, it should be noted that silver is still a better option in the falling market of precious metals, and short silver and long gold are more suitable for some investors with lower risk appetite.

About US stocks

Both the U.S. stock index and the leading brother Nvidia maintained a good momentum last week, and there were no signs of a quick peak and crash. Even so, we are still more inclined to find a suitable strategy to sell at a high price at this stage rather than continue to chase higher. From multiple angles, it is difficult to continue to increase the current valuation level, and forced driving may be counterproductive.

However, it is not recommended to guess the top price and short until there is a clear signal in the market itself. Continue to focus on Nvidia's market. Before the gap and weekly low 132 area break back, the stock and index will not have much problem.

About crude oil (commodity)

This is one of the important varieties that we previously expected to change from a wide fluctuation market to a trend market, and the current price continues to hover near the regional low. On the day of the election, oil prices fell sharply, but then they conquered most of the lost ground, which looked more like an act. Judging from the trend of copper prices, it is relatively difficult for commodities to move upward, so the current tug-of-war still has the opportunity to pave the way for the next wave of major declines. If there is a suitable rebound, it is recommended to consider selling on rallies.

On the whole, the new president will bring new impetus to the market, and most of the previous old models will be replaced. U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies are recommended to gradually appear, while gold is waiting for confirmation and short-selling signals, and commodities are likely to go down. As for foreign exchange, the US dollar will be relatively strong, but the real breakthrough needs the cooperation of other markets to be completed.

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