$200M Trader Rolls Again; Bear Alert, Tech Stocks May Face a Sluggish Week
After NVIDIA's earnings release on Thursday, November 21st, the $200M trader rolled positions within the first 30 minutes of trading, closing December 20th 135 calls and buying $NVDA 20250221 140.0 CALL$ .
Based on November 21st data, the position size was similar to the previous earnings roll, around 160,000 contracts.
Again using floor trading (non-electronic trades executed on the exchange floor), the execution price wasn't closely tied to the bid-ask spread. The buy direction assessment is based on historical patterns.
The 140 strike roll was unsurprising, $5 higher than my conservative estimate, indicating a bullish trend for the next 3 months.
However, markets unanimously expect another pullback by month-end, with 130 as support. Bulls might consider buying these dips.
Strategically, institutions seem overly confident NVIDIA won't break 150 this week, establishing dense call spreads above 145:
If the pullback plays out, we'll test 130 within two weeks. A short squeeze is possible but unlikely without unexpected positive news.
The large bullish positions consist of two call spreads: sell 146/buy 157.5 and sell 145/buy 155
Sell $NVDA 20241129 146.0 CALL$
Buy $NVDA 20241129 157.5 CALL$
And
Sell $NVDA 20241129 145.0 CALL$
Buy $NVDA 20241129 155.0 CALL$
My weekly position is stock + sell $NVDA 20241129 155.0 CALL$ + sell $NVDA 20241129 130.0 PUT$ . 130 might get assigned; the actual bottom will likely pierce this psychological level. Consider selling puts below 130 to avoid assignment.
COIN's situation mirrors NVIDIA and Tesla this week - institutions predict either downside or a surge, with wide spreads between sold calls and bought calls:
Sell $COIN 20241129 320.0 CALL$
Buy $COIN 20241129 370.0 CALL$
Sell $COIN 20241129 320.0 CALL$
Buy $COIN 20241129 375.0 CALL$
Without major catalysts, this week should remain subdued, explaining Citron's strategic timing in shorting $MicroStrategy(MSTR)$.
$AMD$
Here's a notable bearish AMD call spread targeting below 140:
Sell $AMD 20241129 140.0 CALL$
Buy $AMD 20241129 146.0 CALL$
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