To The Moon

If you are a friend of mine here on tiger, you know my answer... its space. But i want to sound a very cautious note on space stocks. In my last post i outlined a case for investment in 3 space stocks... $Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$, $AST SpaceMobile, Inc.(ASTS)$ And $Redwire Corp.(RDW)$. It should have been clear in that article that rocket lab was seriously my favorite and the other two i am building a tiny tiny position in for now.

I also expressed there were no other space stocks that i felt had potential. So now lets look at one in particular that has buyer beware written all over it. Been asked about it quite a bit recently, its Sunday here at the time of writing so this morning I thought id have a cruise of a day and read this company's latest Q10 sec filing. so you don't have to, lol.

The company im talking about is $Intuitive Machines(LUNR)$ Basically it builds spacecraft To go to the moon. First huge concern was some serious dilution recently and a lot more to come. Second was cash runaway not good, hence the constant dilution. Then it got worse, way worse.

Don't Get me wrong i love what they are doing and theres some amazing IP, but their main customer is NASA. Sounds good on the surface yeh? Nah. 4 contracts with NASA, one completed this year and 3 others in progress over the next three ish years. Two of the three contracts are already costing more that the fixed price contract is worth. The first one that has closed off, i dont know if that lost money, and quite frankly it probably did, but im not wasting more time finding out. Cause at this point im swimming as far away from intuitive machines as i can.

Now i only spent a few hours on this company so maybe i missed things, but the red flags i found just tell me... no way! And there were a lot more smaller red flags. But no point mentioning them, i just don't think it will be around come 2030 unless they do something spectacular. Not so much on the science side, they are incredible there. No, in my humble opinion its the business model thats the issue. Its quoting for jobs at a fixed price, not delivering on time and also underpricing and loosing money. NASA has pushed out there contracts time wise and down scaled them too, so perhaps they also see the writing on the wall.

In conclusion, whatever The next big thing is, space, drones or quantum, some companies are great, some average, and some just an extremely bad idea if you value wearing a shirt. Intuitive machines is really cool, but i think it's screwed. I hope im wrong. :(

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