Booming earnings have helped tech stocks break numerous records
Weekly Macro Themes Report - 13 December 2024
1. Stocks vs Bonds: Bearish stocks vs bonds given valuations, technicals, macro. Also mindful of the favorable setup for commodities vs stocks (commodities likely win in resurgence, vs bonds recession).
2. Credit Spreads: Remain cautious on credit spreads given expensive valuations, wider complacency on risk pricing, and mixed macro signals.
3. Tech Stocks: Booming earnings have helped tech stocks break numerous records, and sees them trading at a significant premium vs history, vs non-tech stocks, and vs global TMT stocks.
4. Global vs US Equities: The new extreme relative value gap in global vs US stocks is compelling, but we need to see relative earnings and/or the US dollar turn to see price sustainably turn.
5. US Dollar (+The US Premium): Remain bearish USD despite short-term signs of strength given larger technical picture (significant long-term resistance), expensive valuations, fiscal/monetary headwinds.
$.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $.DJI(.DJI)$ $GLOBAL X DOW 30® COVERED CALL ETF(DJIA)$
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- KSR·12-14👍LikeReport