To The Moon

Public Holidays

There will be no public holidays in China for the coming week.

China America, Singapore and Hong Kong are closed on New Year’s Day (01 Jan 2025). Some countries operate half a day on New Year’s Day Eve (31 Dec 2024).

Here is wishing all a Blessed New Year (2025).

Economic Calendar (30Dec24)

Notable Highlights

• Chicago PMI will be revealed with a forecast of 42.8. This implies a contraction of the sector in Chicago.

• China's manufacturing PMI will also be reviewed. A forecast of 50.3 implies a slight expansion in the sector. China is a global factory and this can also be seen as a barometer of global demand.

• S&P global US manufacturing PMI will also be announced. The forecast of 48.3 implies a contraction in the manufacturing sector.

• The ISM manufacturing PMI will be announced. This is another measurement of the growth or contraction of the manufacturing sector. ISM manufacturing prices reflect the inflationary or deflationary pressure faced by manufacturers. An amount higher than 50 will suggest some inflationary pressures.

• Initial jobless claims will be announced. The Federal Reserve uses this as one of the key macro data references as it balances inflation and employment in the economy.

• Crude Oil Inventories can be seen as forward indicators of market demand and consumption. If the trend of excess inventories continues, demand erosion can lead to reduced production & weakening consumer spending.

Earnings Calendar (30Dec24)

Due to the holiday season, there are 2 notable earnings this week - RGP and Lifecore

Let us look at RGP.

Who is RGP?

RGP is in the consultancy business and has a global portfolio.

Technical Analysis has recommended a “Sell”.

Analysts Sentiment is “Neutral” with a price target of $13.13. This implies a potential upside of 56% for this stock.

The stock price ranges along the recent lows and struggles to break the $9 price ceiling.

Observations about RGP:

• Revenue has not grown much over the 10 years.

• Gross Profit lingers around 38.8% over the last 10 years.

• Operating profit has fallen to a recent low of $29M.

• EPS has been ranging after a peak in 2022-2023.

• The balance sheet remains relatively healthy with a 0.1 Debt/Assets ratio and a 0.2 Debt/Equity ratio.

• This is a quick glance that should lead to a deep dive if there is interest and indication of good fundamentals.

For the coming earnings, the forecast is $0.005 and $137.02M for EPS and Revenue.

Market Outlook of S&P500 - 30Dec24

Observations:

• The MACD indicator is showing a downtrend with a potential reversal. Let us give it time to play out.

• Moving Averages (MA). Both the MA50 line and the MA200 line are on an uptrend. However, both the MA50 and MA200 lines are below the last candle, which could be read as bullish for both the mid-and long-term.

• The 3 Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are on a downtrend.

• Chaikin’s Monetary flow (CMF) shows a downtrend.

From technical analysis (daily interval), the 20 indicators (technical & moving averages) point to a “Sell” rating. The breakdown reveals 7 indicators with a “Buy” rating and 13 indicators with a “Sell” rating.

now, let us look at candlestick patterns.

Based on the above technical analysis (1D chart), the S&P500 should be on a downtrend in the coming week.

News and my thoughts from last week (30Dec24)

Is entitlement the curse of progress?

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BLACKROCK SAYS DIVERSIFY YOUR PORTFOLIO WITH GOLD AND BITCOIN TO HEDGE AGAINST EQUITY SELLOFFS

Serbian President Vučić has stated that the Nord Stream pipeline may be restarted soon: "Germany urgently needs cheap Russian gas, so within a year, the remaining intact section of the Nord Stream pipeline could be sold to U.S. investors and put back into operation." - X user Russian Market

HOMELESSNESS SURGES AS HOUSING COSTS SOAR 18% Homelessness in the U.S. jumped 18.1% this year, with over 770,000 people now living on the streets. Rising costs and a severe lack of affordable housing are driving the crisis. Major cities like NYC and Chicago are overwhelmed, with migrant surges adding to the strain. Meanwhile, taxpayer dollars are funding housing for undocumented migrants as Americans struggle to afford basic shelter. To make matters worse, mortgage rates are stuck at 6.85%, and home prices, insurance, and property taxes are climbing fast—often outpacing mortgage payments. America’s housing crisis can’t wait. Solutions are needed now. Source: AP News, Wall Street Journal, X user nicksortor

Americans are diving deeper into the red this season, with 36% racking up holiday debt - and it's hitting young parents the hardest. 48% of parents with young kids and 42% of millennials took the debt plunge, while nearly half of Americans are still carrying last year's holiday debt! Only 44% expected these charges, as inflation keeps crushing wallets while folks try to "spread joy" despite the squeeze. Source: CNBC

Average car insurance premiums are up 51% in the last three years: Why? There are many reasons — more uninsured drivers, soaring repair costs, rising claims… And, get this — Moving violations: a single speeding ticket is boosting premiums by as much as 23.2% in some cases. Wild. (Data source: BLS / Bankrate / The Zebra) - X user Car Dealership Guy

RUSSIA BANS CRYPTO MINING IN KEY REGIONS STARTING 2025, CITING ENERGY SHORTAGES - X user Investing

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from X user Sara Eisen dated Dec 26> Top chart of the year: 10 year Treasury yield. The Fed started cutting rates in Sept and market rates have shot up since. Market fighting the Fed

• The market has set the price with demand meeting supply. Fed can try to guide with interest rates. But the market has more considerations than the interest rates. This is not trending in the right direction.

For the first time ever, EU births have crashed below 4 million, with just 3.88 million live births in 2022. The fertility rate? A dire 1.46—a ticking time bomb far below the global average of 2.27. Malta (1.08), Spain (1.16), and Italy (1.24) are in freefall, while even France at 1.79 struggles to meet replacement levels. This isn’t just a trend; it’s a crisis threatening Europe’s very future - economically, socially, and politically. Source: EuroNews

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US LEVERAGE LOAN DEFAULTS ARE SKYROCKETING - US firms are defaulting on junk loans at the fastest pace since the 2020 CRISIS. This comes as firms took MASSIVELY on debt during the low rates environment in 2020 and now are paying the price. The Fed has created a MONSTER. x user Global Markets InvestorPer the FT: “US companies are defaulting on junk loans at the fastest rate in four years, as they struggle to refinance a wave of cheap borrowing that followed the Covid pandemic.” This is not about weak demand. Rather, it’s the consequence of excessive borrowing by companies, and risk taking by creditors, during what many thought at the time would be “QE infinity” with artificially low interest rates for as long as it mattered. X user Mohamed A. El-Erian

• The US economy remains resilient. Goldman Sachs recently lowered the probability of a US recession in the next 12 months to 15%, down from an earlier forecast of 20%, citing a resilient job market. - CNBCTV18

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Risk appetite is skyrocketing: There are now a record 48 million options contracts traded per day, on average. This volume has tripled over the last 7 years and has surpassed the 2023 record of 44 million. Furthermore, 0DTE options now reflect ~50% of the total volume. Meanwhile, a record $6.6 trillion worth of equity options expired on Friday, confirming rapidly growing volume. Risk appetite is incredibly strong. - X user The Kobeissi Letter

Shanghai Port breaks record with 50 million TEUs annual throughput Advantages of China’s foreign trade continue to grow. - Global Times CN

Prospects of a strike at U.S. East Coast ports in January could boost trans-Atlantic rates. Some carriers have announced disruption surcharges in anticipation of a strike. Some are expecting February's alliance reshuffle to cause some disruptions, with MSC announcing disruption charge. - Yahoo Finance

Kiyosaki warns of a global financial crisis, advising investments in gold, silver, and Bitcoin. He criticizes fiat currency as “fake money” and advocates for financial education to ensure security - Benzinga

US banking giants capture biggest share of industry profits since 2015 JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo account for 44% of earnings - FT

• People see what they want to see. They could be right. Just because one thinks in a certain way, it does not mean that others will think likewise. So long the intent is for a greater good.

Quantum computing can post security concerns due to their ability to hack encryption within a shorter time frame. How should this be managed if we can have quantum computing systems at home in the future?

Personal debt is overwhelming an increasing number of Japanese as higher interest rates and the rising cost of living bite. Consumer loans are rising at the highest rate in 16 years. Household borrowing exceeded incomes for the first time last year. - Japan Times

• The convenience of debt can be defeated by innovation, accountability and fiscal responsibility.

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Note the change in Shipping Alliances from February 2025. thanks to Container News for this.

My Investing Muse (30Dec24)

Layoffs & Closure news

Photo Credit: Fabrice COFFRINI | AFP | Getty Images

From X user Evan:Google CEO Sundar Pichai and other Google leaders told employees last week at a 2025 strategy meeting that “the stakes are high” for next year - CNBC “I think it’s really important we internalize the urgency of this moment, and need to move faster as a company. The stakes are high. These are disruptive moments. In 2025, we need to be relentlessly focused on unlocking the benefits of this technology and solve real user problems.” - Sundar Pichai

In summary, layoffs are coming.

Now that Trump has won, they are revising all of their numbers during the Biden administration. The govt initially reported Q2 of 2024 had 653,000 job gains. It was actually NEGATIVE. There was also a revision of 800,000 jobs from last year. They falsified the data to try to help Biden/Harris. They will likely spin the economy negative now that Trump is President. X user Wall Street Mav

Layoffs hit more than 900 workers tied to the freight industry across the US. FedEx, GXO Logistics, ShipMonk, Mountain Valley Express LLC among companies with job cuts - Freightwaves

Signs of a Market Top (from X user The Long Investor)

- Parabolic Market moves in Wave 5

- Bubbles in particular sectors

- High PE Market average

- Large breadth between the price action and the 50 Day/200 Day MA and significantly above the 200 WMA

- RSI above 80

- Sentiment believes ‘they can’t lose’

- Wall St aggressively bullish (now)

- Heavily reliant on one sector to carry the market (Semis/Ai) house of cards scenario

- Retail going all in

- Retail largest inflows in decades

- Smart Money adding Safe Havens

- Smart Money going to Cash

- Smart Money going to new markets outside of the US (China) - Delinquencies at a record high

- 10 Year not following the Rate Cut decrease

- VIX above 38 Does any of this look familiar?

The signs of a market top are there. It does not mean that record highs are no longer available. It does remind me to consider taking off some profits.

A loss for Buffett is a free tip for me - Occidental

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A loss is realized when the position is closed. This also applies to profits.

When Buffett or Berkshire buys, a good margin of safety has been applied. This article is a good tip that says that this company is undervalued (based on Buffet’s previous calculations). However, it is necessary for us to do our due diligence to qualify the business. If we lack the circle of competence, we do not need to follow through with this.

My final thoughts

2024 is coming to a close. There is much to be thankful for. My portfolio has a mix of hits and misses. With most of my positions meant for the long term, there are limited closures. However, I have exited some of the stocks that are showing weakening fundamentals over a long period. For the trades that I am doing, I have exited some of them - taking both profits and losses.

The biggest gain from investing in 2024 is the knowledge and the people that I have met along this journey. My portfolio has grown, was trimmed and I have added some more assets. Let us look forward to a better 2025.

@TigerStars

$Resources Global Professionals(RGP)$

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