To The Moon

News and my thoughts from last week (30Dec24)

Is entitlement the curse of progress?

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BLACKROCK SAYS DIVERSIFY YOUR PORTFOLIO WITH GOLD AND BITCOIN TO HEDGE AGAINST EQUITY SELLOFFS

Serbian President Vučić has stated that the Nord Stream pipeline may be restarted soon: "Germany urgently needs cheap Russian gas, so within a year, the remaining intact section of the Nord Stream pipeline could be sold to U.S. investors and put back into operation." - X user Russian Market

HOMELESSNESS SURGES AS HOUSING COSTS SOAR 18% Homelessness in the U.S. jumped 18.1% this year, with over 770,000 people now living on the streets. Rising costs and a severe lack of affordable housing are driving the crisis. Major cities like NYC and Chicago are overwhelmed, with migrant surges adding to the strain. Meanwhile, taxpayer dollars are funding housing for undocumented migrants as Americans struggle to afford basic shelter. To make matters worse, mortgage rates are stuck at 6.85%, and home prices, insurance, and property taxes are climbing fast—often outpacing mortgage payments. America’s housing crisis can’t wait. Solutions are needed now. Source: AP News, Wall Street Journal, X user nicksortor

Americans are diving deeper into the red this season, with 36% racking up holiday debt - and it's hitting young parents the hardest. 48% of parents with young kids and 42% of millennials took the debt plunge, while nearly half of Americans are still carrying last year's holiday debt! Only 44% expected these charges, as inflation keeps crushing wallets while folks try to "spread joy" despite the squeeze. Source: CNBC

Average car insurance premiums are up 51% in the last three years: Why? There are many reasons — more uninsured drivers, soaring repair costs, rising claims… And, get this — Moving violations: a single speeding ticket is boosting premiums by as much as 23.2% in some cases. Wild. (Data source: BLS / Bankrate / The Zebra) - X user Car Dealership Guy

RUSSIA BANS CRYPTO MINING IN KEY REGIONS STARTING 2025, CITING ENERGY SHORTAGES - X user Investing

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from X user Sara Eisen dated Dec 26> Top chart of the year: 10 year Treasury yield. The Fed started cutting rates in Sept and market rates have shot up since. Market fighting the Fed

• The market has set the price with demand meeting supply. Fed can try to guide with interest rates. But the market has more considerations than the interest rates. This is not trending in the right direction.

For the first time ever, EU births have crashed below 4 million, with just 3.88 million live births in 2022. The fertility rate? A dire 1.46—a ticking time bomb far below the global average of 2.27. Malta (1.08), Spain (1.16), and Italy (1.24) are in freefall, while even France at 1.79 struggles to meet replacement levels. This isn’t just a trend; it’s a crisis threatening Europe’s very future - economically, socially, and politically. Source: EuroNews

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US LEVERAGE LOAN DEFAULTS ARE SKYROCKETING - US firms are defaulting on junk loans at the fastest pace since the 2020 CRISIS. This comes as firms took MASSIVELY on debt during the low rates environment in 2020 and now are paying the price. The Fed has created a MONSTER. x user Global Markets InvestorPer the FT: “US companies are defaulting on junk loans at the fastest rate in four years, as they struggle to refinance a wave of cheap borrowing that followed the Covid pandemic.” This is not about weak demand. Rather, it’s the consequence of excessive borrowing by companies, and risk taking by creditors, during what many thought at the time would be “QE infinity” with artificially low interest rates for as long as it mattered. X user Mohamed A. El-Erian

• The US economy remains resilient. Goldman Sachs recently lowered the probability of a US recession in the next 12 months to 15%, down from an earlier forecast of 20%, citing a resilient job market. - CNBCTV18

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Risk appetite is skyrocketing: There are now a record 48 million options contracts traded per day, on average. This volume has tripled over the last 7 years and has surpassed the 2023 record of 44 million. Furthermore, 0DTE options now reflect ~50% of the total volume. Meanwhile, a record $6.6 trillion worth of equity options expired on Friday, confirming rapidly growing volume. Risk appetite is incredibly strong. - X user The Kobeissi Letter

Shanghai Port breaks record with 50 million TEUs annual throughput Advantages of China’s foreign trade continue to grow. - Global Times CN

Prospects of a strike at U.S. East Coast ports in January could boost trans-Atlantic rates. Some carriers have announced disruption surcharges in anticipation of a strike. Some are expecting February's alliance reshuffle to cause some disruptions, with MSC announcing disruption charge. - Yahoo Finance

Kiyosaki warns of a global financial crisis, advising investments in gold, silver, and Bitcoin. He criticizes fiat currency as “fake money” and advocates for financial education to ensure security - Benzinga

US banking giants capture biggest share of industry profits since 2015 JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo account for 44% of earnings - FT

• People see what they want to see. They could be right. Just because one thinks in a certain way, it does not mean that others will think likewise. So long the intent is for a greater good.

Quantum computing can post security concerns due to their ability to hack encryption within a shorter time frame. How should this be managed if we can have quantum computing systems at home in the future?

Personal debt is overwhelming an increasing number of Japanese as higher interest rates and the rising cost of living bite. Consumer loans are rising at the highest rate in 16 years. Household borrowing exceeded incomes for the first time last year. - Japan Times

• The convenience of debt can be defeated by innovation, accountability and fiscal responsibility.

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Note the change in Shipping Alliances from February 2025. thanks to Container News for this.

@TigerStars

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