AAPL: Wednesday Surprise Sparks New Highs?
A Marketing Ploy.
On Fri, 14 Feb 2025, $Apple(AAPL)$ CEO, Mr Tim Cook uploaded a teaser video showing a glowing ring around a metallic Apple logo (see above) and announced a new addition to the Apple family tree - slated for Wed, 19 Feb 2025 unveiling.
The 7-seconds video worked the media into a “frenzy” of sort and like it or not, helped AAPL to end Friday higher by +1.27% at $244.60 per share. (see below)
What’s At Stake ?
After all the second-guessings have settled, media seemed bent that it will be the potential unveiling of a new, lower-cost iPhone SE4 model (see below) and possibly with Apple Intelligence features thrown into the mix.
Investopedia’s post also had $Morgan Stanley(MS)$ stating that it expects the iPhone SE4 to start at $499 and (again) come equipped with Apple Intelligence, that Cook has said is driving record iPhone upgrades.
And, Morgan Stanley maintained its “Overweight” rating and $275 price target.
Additionally, of the 16 analysts covering Apple tracked by Visible Alpha:
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9 have a “Buy” or equivalent rating.
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5 have a “Hold” rating.
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2 have a “Sell” rating.
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Overall, consensus price target is approx. $253, that is about a +4% premium over Friday’s close.
What May Happen Next !
As US market is closed for President Day on Mon, 17 Feb 2025, here’s what might happen to AAPL on the run up to the big reveal.
Tuesday, 18 Feb 2025.
With product launch a day away, both anticipation and speculation might build up on Tuesday.
With US market generally believed the rumors about the new iPhone SE + Apple Intelligence, a slight positive movement in AAPL stock cannot be ruled out.
Investors often buy in anticipation of positive news.
However, this would likely be tempered by the fact that it is pure speculation.
Less “FOMO” investors may prefer to wait for the actual announcement.
Wednesday, 19 Feb 2025.
AAPL's stock movement will heavily depend on actual announcement:
(1) If it’s really iPhone SE + AI + $499 price tag:
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There should be a “celebration”, bumping up the stock price.
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MS's "overweight" rating and price target will go a long way to reinforce this positive sentiment.
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Success of the launch would also be defined by - (a) Device's reception, (b) Pre-order numbers and (c) Initial reviews.
(2) If it’s not iPhone SE :
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Could lead to uncertainty and potentially a “negative” rally.
(3) It is iPhone SE and significantly different from expectations.
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Difference could mean (i) higher price, (ii) fewer features etc.
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Leading to uncertainty and potentially a negative reaction, causing AAPL to dip.
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Disappointment often lead to investors’ sell off.
(4) If announcement is vague OR no groundbreaking news:
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The stock will likely remain relatively flat, as the market may not find enough compelling information to drive significant movement.
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Worst case scenario could be a dip instead.
Fuss Over iPhone SE4 ?
iPhone SE 4 is a combination of :
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Affordability.
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Flagship-level performance.
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Modern design.
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*Access to Apple Intelligence.
All the above makes it an attractive option for a wide range of consumers:
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Appeal to budget-conscious users seeking premium features.
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Attractive to those looking to upgrade from their older models without breaking the bank.
Additionally, Apple’s role in expanding AI accessibility aligns with broader consumer trends toward smarter devices.
In summary, the iPhone SE 4 represents a significant leap forward for Apple's budget lineup, offering unparalleled value in its price segment while maintaining Apple's hallmark quality and innovation.
Unsaid and unspoken, iPhone SE 4’s existence is to fulfill Apple’s age old market gaps:
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The SE 4 is expected to address declining iPhone sales by targeting mid-range buyers.
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And “level” competition with Android alternatives like Google's Pixel A series and Samsung's Galaxy A lineup.
There is never a better time for Apple to start conquering the many levels of the mobile phone market, like Android. If you cannot beat them, join them - right !
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Do you think it will be the iPhone SE 4 that would be reveal on Wednesday ?
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Do you think Apple’s H1 2025 revenue growth rests heavily on the SE 4 launch and success?
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