To The Moon

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$

This is a typical event-driven short selling case. The more it drops, the greater the panic, and predicting the bottom is challenging, though the decline seems to be nearing its end.

On Monday, NVIDIA's stock price plunged 8.69%, closing at 114.06. On Tuesday, the opening price fell below 110.

From the options open interest data, bullish open positions significantly outnumber bearish ones, but this is not very meaningful. First, the open options are mostly expiring this week, which indicates that long-term bullish positions have not entered, and the short-term players are just trading on volatility.

The bearish situation is similar but with notable differences. The strike prices for bearish positions are more scattered and less continuous, unlike the bullish ones. Event-driven short selling doesn’t require consistency—it’s all about exploiting panic.

By sorting this week's expiring options by strike price, you can directly compare the bullish and bearish open positions. The bearish open interest is more scattered. For example, the second-most open bearish option is the 90 put expiring this week, primarily driven by buyers, indicating someone is betting on a larger crash.

The most opened bullish option is the 129 call $NVDA 20250307 129.0 CALL$ , with 92,000 contracts, mainly driven by sellers.

The most opened bearish option is the 110 put $NVDA 20250307 110.0 PUT$ , with both buying and selling activity, showing significant divergence between bulls and bears.

Notably, there has been a roll of put positions by large traders, with the expiration date moved closer:

• Closed 118 puts $NVDA 20250321 118.0 PUT$ , with 16,000 contracts closed.

• Opened 124 puts $NVDA 20250314 124.0 PUT$ , with 18,000 contracts opened.

From past experience, rolling positions to a closer expiration date suggests that the downtrend is nearing its end.

It’s also worth noting that the $NVDA 20250321 118.0 PUT$  position that was rolled this time might belong to the "buyer of straddle strategies" we mentioned earlier. If that’s the case, this becomes even more interesting.

In summary, NVIDIA’s sharp drop is undoubtedly influenced by supply chain news. However, the rumor about TSMC cutting orders happened right after NVIDIA’s earnings report, right before the tariff hike decision, and coincidentally, a batch of precise end-of-day put options were bought for shorting. Then the stock price dropped, causing widespread panic among everyone, including influencers, and Wall Street successfully achieved its shakeout objective.

Here’s my conclusion: This NVIDIA crash is a deliberate short-selling operation. If you have funds, consider bottom-fishing. If you don’t, there’s no need to panic sell. I’ll write a detailed event review tomorrow.

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$

It’s quite abstract—some are buying 700 calls, while others are buying 195 puts. I assumed there’d be consensus above 250, but there isn’t. It feels like 2017 again, where shorts always believe the price isn’t low enough.

This week, selling calls at 310 is reasonable, and the lower limit currently seems to be around 250.