To The Moon

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$

Options open interest data from March 7th shows that new call options are primarily short-term, expiring this week, with most of the action focused on selling. For put options, the $110 strike price is predominantly sold, while deep out-of-the-money puts are largely bought. For this week’s options, the $118 put saw 19,000 new open interest bought, which appears to be a rollover from March monthly $118 puts.

Institutions continue to sell calls and roll positions. The lowest strike price for selling calls is $116, with hedging purchases of $124 calls. The strike prices for new put positions seem scattered, with close attention needed for the $105-$110 range.

Compared to Monday, March 3rd, changes in open interest are significant. Call option open interest has surged, primarily at the $120 and $130 strike prices. Meanwhile, there has been some rolling and reduction of put positions. A substantial number of sell puts have emerged, focusing on the $110 and $100 strike prices.

For the anonymous whale who bought head options expiring on March 21st, including $122 call, $122 put, $120 call, $120 put, $124 call, and $118 put, the stock price must drop below $100 for a breakeven point. Wall Street market makers must defend the current price level to avoid losing tens of billions.

Outlook for the week remains unchanged. Considering that the whale rolled puts to closer expiration dates rather than to April or further months, surviving this week may be key.

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$

Have the large bearish positions in $TSLA 20250620 370.0 PUT$  and $TSLA 20251219 250.0 PUT$  been closed? They have not. Therefore, bottom-fishing is not recommended.

There are no signs of other bearish options being rolled in the open interest data. Two new long-term bearish spreads have emerged:

• $TSLA 20260320 150.0 PUT$  and $TSLA 20260320 145.0 PUT$ , with a volume of 140,000 contracts.

• $TSLA 20260618 100.0 PUT$  and $TSLA 20260618 95.0 PUT$ , with a volume of 60,000 contracts.

These seem to be bearish positions for a bear market, but is it a bit late to enter now? Or does this suggest that the delivery expectations for March remain poor?

$Apple(AAPL)$

Following the large bullish position in Google ($GOOGL 20260116 250.0 CALL$ ), Apple has also seen out-of-the-money long call activity: $AAPL 20260116 310.0 CALL$ .

In the past two days, 30,000 contracts have been opened. At a price of $3.6 per contract, the transaction amount is approximately $10.8 million. The $310 strike price implies an expected 30% increase in Apple’s stock this year, suggesting a bull market similar to last year. However, judging by the outlook for NVIDIA, this doesn’t seem very realistic.

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$

Looking at the expiration dates of bearish positions, next week will mark an important inflection point, consistent with the options data for NVIDIA.

$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$

However, based on QQQ’s open interest, the decline in growth stocks may continue until early April.