I didn’t expect to profit from the triple witching day.
Originally, I thought there wasn’t much to analyze, and next week’s volatility seemed pretty predictable. However, the newly opened position for the $130 call $NVDA 20250321 130.0 CALL$ on Wednesday is quite interesting—it’s mostly from sellers.
It’s known that on triple witching days, the value of major options is highly likely to go to zero, so we can confidently and boldly follow this trade by selling the $130 call $NVDA 20250321 130.0 CALL$ expiring next week, which offers an annualized return of 21%.
The $130 call expiring on March 28 works under the same logic $NVDA 20250328 130.0 CALL$ . Whether the price can rebound to $130 by the end of the month is uncertain, but the value of the call expiring on the 28th will surely depreciate significantly after next week, making it suitable for selling.
Similarly, selling the $110 or $105 put expiring next week $NVDA 20250321 105.0 PUT$ offers an annualized return of 40%.
Next week is the GTC conference, but there’s no need to set overly high expectations. The stock price will likely rebound to above $120 but below $124. In this low-volatility environment, being a seller is more appropriate.
Tesla is not as straightforward to handle in the same way. First, there are too many external interfering factors. Second, the stock price has already deviated from the key open interest strike prices, so there’s not much profit to be made here.
In theory, it’s still possible to squeeze something out: sell a $160 put $TSLA 20250321 160.0 PUT$ and sell a $275 call $TSLA 20250321 275.0 CALL$ . For $160, this is also the lowest strike price expectation known for the major short-sellers.
Short positions saw newly added parity put options at $210 strike $TSLA 20250919 210.0 PUT$ , expiring in September. It seems the road to a rebound is going to be even longer.
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