This week seems packed with events, from GTC to FOMC, but the real market moves have already happened in the past two weeks. What’s left are minor rebounds and pullbacks within a range this week.
It’s the final battle week of the triple witching period, but I don’t think even the GTC conference will drive NVIDIA’s price up significantly. This is because capital’s attention is on the application layer—they want to see breakthroughs in AI applications. In the current state, no matter how much hardware improves, it’s unlikely to stimulate further capital expenditure.
Institutions are well-prepared, selling $128 calls and $126 calls to hedge against $138 and $136 calls.
There’s one rather peculiar combo trade: buying $120 calls $NVDA 20250620 120.0 CALL$ and selling $135 calls $NVDA 20251017 135.0 CALL$ . The proceeds from the sold calls completely cover the cost of the bought calls, making it a cost-free bullish strategy. Rather than being bearish on the price up to October, it seems they simply don’t have high expectations for a rebound in the first half of the year.
The strategy of selling $130+ calls and $105 puts remains unchanged. This week’s closing is expected to be between $118 and $124.
New options positions opened, with institutions selling $260 calls. This indicates an expected upper limit for Tesla’s stock price below $260 this week.
For the stock price floor, considering the triple witching week, it likely won’t fall below last week’s low.
For options expiring this week, based on open interest rankings, the ideal closing range is $230–$250, but the actual outcome is hard to predict.
A large sell order was placed for $SPY 20250321 580.0 CALL$ , with a volume of 13,600 contracts. This suggests that the S&P 500 is unlikely to exceed $580 this week.
$X-trackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares Fund(ASHR)$
A significant bullish order was observed: buying $ASHR 20250417 30.0 CALL$ , with a volume of 125,000 contracts and a transaction value of $3.625 million.
However, buying calls now seems unwise. After the triple witching day, the market is likely to undergo a washout phase. This washout could drag on with persistent declines until the week of April 17th, when a rebound might occur.
Intel’s issue lies in its excessive insider activity.
On March 5th, someone bought 70,000 contracts of $INTC 20260116 60.0 CALL$ (expiring next January). Shortly afterward, news broke about a CEO change, leading to a 14% surge, followed by another rise when the new CEO announced reforms.
How long this optimism will last is unclear, but based on the open positions, it seems unlikely for Intel to break $30 anytime soon.
The insider activity is primarily concentrated on recent bullish roll trades: closing $INTC 20250321 25.0 CALL$ and rolling into $INTC 20250328 25.0 CALL$ . The target price was nearly hit today.
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
