To The Moon

1.

$Gold - main 2504(GCmain)$ TECHNICAL: The gold trend remains upward, however, the gold price action formed a doji on Thursday, which could lead to a pullback before resuming the rebound trend.

Gold ended Thursday's session slightly down nearly 0.1 % at $3044.64. Gold prices touched a record high of $3,057.57 during the session.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is overbought but is set to fall to 70 as bulls hedge their bets, meaning shorts aren't out of the woods but may take some profits on the decline in gold prices.

The first support level for gold prices will be the $3,000 mark. Once it falls below this level, the next target will be the 20 February high of $2954 and then $2900.

Should gold prices rise above $3,050, this would pave the way for gold prices to challenge $3,100.

Gold is expected to trade in the range of 3025 and 3048 in the European and American markets. Trading continues to be a buy trade! $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$

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I. Market Background and Fundamental Drivers

Federal Reserve policy moves. Overnight the Federal Reserve's March interest rate resolution to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% range, in line with market expectations. Fed Chairman Powell stressed at the conference that ‘tariff rhetoric may delay the achievement of the inflation target’, but did not make clear the policy shift signal. This statement triggered a twofold impact: first, interest rates remain high environment, the opportunity cost of holding gold still exists, inhibit part of the speculative buying; second, tariff policy uncertainty exacerbated economic outlook concerns, gold safe-haven attribute continues to highlight. It is worth noting that Powell mentioned ‘the probability of recession has risen but not reached a high level’, suggesting that the future policy path is still dependent on the data, the market is expected to cut interest rates of the game or become a medium-term disturbing factors. 2.

Geopolitical risk fermentation. The situation in Gaza and Turkey is the core driver of the current risk aversion. Geopolitical risk in the short term is difficult to signs of easing, gold as a ‘crisis hedging tool’ configuration demand remains high.

Market sentiment and capital flow. Physical demand support: well-known institutions data show that Switzerland in February to the United States exported 147.4 tonnes of gold, valued at more than $ 14 billion, indicating that the institutional and retail investors on the long-term allocation of gold willingness is strong.

Second, the technical surface depth analysis (double cycle independent dismantling)

Daily level: trend continuity verification

Bollinger band pattern: daily Bollinger band upper rail 3036 U.S. dollars and the current price (3032 U.S. dollars) is only 4 U.S. dollars, the opening expansion rate accelerated, suggesting that the daily level of volatility into the accelerated stage, we need to be vigilant about extreme market.

Mean level: the price stood firm above the 200-day SMA ($2625) for more than 15%, and the deviation from the 100-day SMA ($2758) reached 10%, the daily level has entered a super-trend state, need to be combined with other cycles to determine the risk of correction.

MACD divergence risk: daily MACD histogram line maintains a positive value, but the difference between DIF (45.62) and DEA (37.14) narrowed by 0.3% compared to the previous value, there is a momentum decay initial signal.

240-minute level: short-term trading signals capture

Bollinger Band Channel Strategy: 240-minute Bollinger Band spacing between the upper and lower rails of $199 (2837-3036), the current price is close to the upper rail, 4-hour level need to pay attention to the channel mean reversion, if the K line entity fell below the middle rail of $2936, the short-term trend turned weak.

Average cross guidance: 240-minute cycle, MA30 (2980) and MA60 (2920) formed a golden cross, but the price and MA30 deviation of 1.7%, there is a short-term pullback to fill the gap demand.

RSI tactical application: 240 minutes RSI three lines of synchronisation touched 70.48, 4 hours overbought state, the price and the number of indicators of top divergence has reached 2 times (this week, Wednesday), alert to the third divergence triggered a retracement.

Double cycle resonance points

Key attack and defence levels overlap: daily pivot point 3040 USD and 240-minute R1 resistance 3058 USD constitute a resonance pressure band of 3,040-3,058 USD, breakthrough requires volume cooperation;

Multi-short momentum switching threshold: if the 240-minute level loses $3,000 (corresponding to daily S1 support), it will trigger the daily MACD dead-cross warning, forming a cross-cycle downward resonance.

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