The April rebound high is unlikely to exceed the February peak.
On Tuesday, the most active bullish options contract was the 145 call: $NVDA 20250417 145.0 CALL$ . A total of 48,000 contracts were opened, with the direction being a sell.
The most active bearish options contract was the 117 put: $NVDA 20250417 117.0 PUT$ . A total of 5,630 contracts were opened, with the direction being a buy. However, this isn't pure bearish sentiment—it’s more of a hedging strategy for holding shares while anticipating downside risk.
A snapshot of large trades shows that the 48,000-contract volume for the 145 call indicates traders are quite confident that the price will not reach 145 by the end of April.
If the price doesn’t reach 145 in April, it’s unlikely to do so in May either.
Based on the latest open interest rankings, the strike price range of 100–110 for puts has almost anchored the lowest point for all months in the first half of the year. This means the stock is expected to go through a "roller coaster ride" every month.
Despite the sharp drop in stock price on Wednesday night, my outlook for NVIDIA’s short-term movements remains unchanged.
Institutions didn’t roll their positions on Tuesday—it seems they endured the massive rally. The strike prices for sell calls remain in the 280–282.5 range.
The most notable bullish options trade was the 1.57 million contracts opened for the January 2027 940 call. This indicates that institutions rolled their positions, moving from the 950 strike to the 940 strike.
In the open interest rankings, the contrast between bullish and bearish options is striking. This reflects the current market sentiment: bears believe the stock is worthless, while bulls think it can skyrocket.
I’ve always struggled to understand the purpose of opening positions with a strike price above 900. There are single-leg trades as well as spreads. However, even if someone is bullish, such far-out-of-the-money strike prices have little influence on the stock price at this stage.
On the other hand, the bears' target is very clear: they aim to short the stock below 200. The expiration dates they’ve chosen are also reasonable. For Elon Musk to reverse the negative reputation caused by online criticism, it would take at least half a year, even in the best-case scenario.
For now, Tesla’s price range in April is expected to be between 200 and 350. This represents an extremely wide spread.
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
