LMT, TSLA, GOOG - US Market Saver this week?
How will US market behave for the week beginning 21 Apr 2025 ?
To make an educated guess, let’s take a look at market’s last week performance. (see below)
US Market Performances.
It is evident that US market pull backed further last week.
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DJIA: -0.89% (-352.26 to 39,142.23). Index is in a “death-cross”.
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S&P 500 : +0.52% (+27.14 to 5,282.70). Index is in a “death-cross”.
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Nasdaq: -0.44% (-72.08 to 16,286.45).
In my Tuesday post, I have shared that the S&P 500 has hit a “death cross”, (click here ! for details. Repost to share !) .
Since then, the Dow Jones has a “death cross” formation as well.
This is not good and definitely a potential for continued market weakness, this week.
US Economic Reports.
Last week's US economic reports also give the latest snapshot on the state of the US economy.
(1) US Retails sales report.
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US Retail sales (MoM) increased +1.4% (for March 2025) exceeding analysts’ estimates of 1.3%.
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This month’s +1.2% gain (from Feb 2025’s +0.2%), was the largest gain since January 2023.
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Households stepped up purchases of (a) motor vehicles and (b) a range of other goods — to avoid higher prices from tariffs in March.
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March’s robust sales will fizzle in the months ahead as consumers hunker down.
(2) US Industrial Production.
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US industrial production fell by -0.3% MoM in March 2025, missing expectations and marking the first decline in 4 months.
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It was mainly due to a steep -5.8% decline in utilities output amid unusually warm weather.
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YoY, industrial production rose by +1.3%, indicating modest growth compared to the previous year.
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Latest data suggest that while manufacturing & mining showed resilience, overall industrial momentum is weakening.
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Clearly reflecting vulnerability to external shocks such as tariffs and weather and pointing to a cautious outlook for the US economy.
(3) US Weekly Jobless claims.
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For the week ended 12 Apr 2025, initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped by -9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 215,000 vs economists’ estimates of 225,000 claims. (see above)
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It is the lowest level since February 2025.
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There are (still) no signs mass firings of federal government workers have significantly impacted the labour market.
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Alternatively, data suggested companies had not yet responded to Trump’s initiated mass layoffs due to White House's constant policy shift that economists said made it difficult for businesses to plan ahead.
(4) US Continuing Jobless Claims.
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What is concerning though is US continuing jobless claims.
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For week ending 05 Apr 2025, continuing claims increased by +41,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.885 million.
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The claims report showed that laid-off workers were finding it difficult to land new opportunities.
US Economic Report - 21 Apr 2025.
There are more reports out this week :
Wed, 23 Apr 2025.
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S&P flash U.S. services PMI for April 2025.
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S&P flash U.S. manufacturing PMI for April 2025.
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Federal Reserves’ beige book.
Thu, 24 Apr 2025.
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US jobless claims for week ending 19 Apr 2025.
Fri, 25 Apr 2025.
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Consumer sentiment, final readings for April 2025.
Quarterly Earnings.
Apart from economic reports, companies are progressively reporting its Q1 2025 earnings.
US banks have kickstarted the earning season.
Now its for other megacap companies to hand in their report cards.
Tesla and Google will be the first batch of Mag 7 to report their earnings. No guessing how it will turn out, given the negative publicity for these 2 companies of late.
Defense stocks will be another interesting watch. Hope its guidance & outlook will shed some light on how Defense budget cut for next 5 years will panned out for these veteran stocks.
Notable earnings release dates for this week:
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Tue, 22 Apr 2025. -
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$, RTX Corporation (formerly Raytheon Technologies), $Lockheed Martin(LMT)$
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Wed, 23 Apr 2025 - $IBM(IBM)$, AT&T (T)$.
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Thu, 24 Apr 2025 - $Alphabet(GOOG)$,
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Fri, 25 Apr 2025 - $AbbVie(ABBV)$.
My viewpoints : (mine only)
US pre-market indicators for the 3 composite indexes have been released on Sunday evening (US time).
As of now, it is in the “red” zone, as expected.
As long as US does not resolve its tariffs impasse with China, no amount of negotiations with other smaller nation is going to restore “confidence” to the US consumers and the US economy.
Daily monitoring of US 10-years Treasury yield will be the most immediate & live update on investors’ confidence and sentiments. Do pay attention where necessary.
I am still questioning myself if I should (a) sit and wait for a turnaround or (b) start selling the profitable holdings while I am still ahead. There’s always a next time (entry) right ?
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Do you think defense stocks will mount a return this week after earnings reveal ?
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Do you think it is true that the only tariffs negotiation that really matters is between the US & China. If it is resolved, everything else will fall in place ?
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