TSLA : Crossroad to Hell or Heaven ?
If my guess is accurate, all eyes will be glued to $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ on the run up to Tue, 22 Apr 2025 evening bell.
This is because Tesla will be announcing its Q1 2025 earnings and guidance / outlook for Q2 2025 & FY 2025.
It will be interesting to find out how else Mr CEO is going to re-hash the years’ old stories of Robotaxi and Humanoids, which according to Wall Street have already been baked into its current stock price, many times over.
Earnings Expectations.
Q1 2025 expectations
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Revenue: approximately $21.81 billion vs $27.2 billion (Q1 2024); that is a -19.82% YoY fall.
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Earnings per share (EPS): $0.43 vs $0.74 (Q1 2024); again thats a -41.89% YoY decline.
Forecasts’ Factors.
Analysts’ derived TSLA’s expected earnings based on TSLA’s vehicle production and delivery numbers released on 02 Apr 2025.
Tesla's Q1 2025 has been marked by concerning production and delivery numbers:
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Production of 362,000 EVs, down -16% YoY.
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Deliveries of 336,681 vehicles, down -13% YoY.
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It was the weakest quarterly delivery performance in 3 years.
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Numbers fell way short of analyst expectations.
The numbers signal a potential slowdown in Tesla's growth trajectory and have contributed to investors’ nervousness about the company's near-term prospects.
Revenue Breakdown.
It is a fact that TSLA’s energy & services segments have been contributing progressively more to TSLA’s topline over the past quarters.
Energy & Storage.
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This has been Tesla’s fastest-growing business segment.
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In 2024, revenue from Energy & Storage reached $10.1 billion, up +67% YoY.
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In Q4 2024 its revenue growth was +113% compared to the prior year.
Services & Others.
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This segment grew +32% in December 2024.
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Its been projected to grow by +15% in 2025.
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This has been supported by the expanding Tesla vehicle fleet and increased service activity.
Insiders Trading.
Insiders have traded TSLA stock on the open market 164 times in the past 6 months.
Of those trades, 0 (zeros) have been purchases and 164 have been sales. (see below)
Breakdown of last 6 months insiders’ activities:
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Robyn M. Denholm made 0 purchases and 44 sales selling 449,560 shares for an estimated $151,968,650.
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Kathleen Wilson-Thompson has made 0 purchases and 55 sales selling 300,000 shares for an estimated $111,019,127.
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Kimbal Musk (Mr CEO’s brother) has made 0 purchases and 10 sales selling 135,500 shares for an estimated $42,729,564.
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Vaibhav Taneja (CFO) has made 0 purchases and 54 sales selling 56,277 shares for an estimated $18,336,978.
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James R Murdoch sold 54,776 shares for an estimated $13,189,403.
Congress Trading.
Members of US Congress have traded TSLA stock 37 times in the past 6 months.
Of those trades, 23 have been purchases and 14 have been sales.
In recent months of March & April (see above), there were 5 sales & 2 purchases:
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Purchases were by Majorie Taylor Greene.
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Sales were by Robert Bresnahan, Josh Gottheimer and Gilbert Ray Cisneros Jr.
Ratings & Price Targets.
Looking at above readings, suffice to say it is almost 50-50 when it comes to analysts’ rating of TSLA.
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The "Buy" ratings still outnumber "Sell" ratings by more than two to one.
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Presence of 9 "Neutral" and 7 "Sell" ratings suggests lingering concerns & uncertainties among analysts over market conditions, company fundamentals, and sector trends.
As for the target prices, overall analysts are still “optimistic” about TSLA’s potentials.
However, its Thu, 17 Apr 2025’s closing price of $241.37 is already straddling between the median and low price target.
My viewpoints: (mine only)
Tesla fans and investors, hopefully, the information helps you decide what to do.
Recap:
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Analysts’ consensuses are “consistent” — that is TSLA will report a loss.
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How much Tesla loses depends on how well its energy & services segments could make up for falling car sales.
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Tesla staff are selling more shares than they're buying. Does this mean something important?
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Apart from company staff, White House politicians are selling too except for Majorie Taylor Greene, who is against the flow.
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Wall Street analysts’ optimistic target prices are already out-of-sync with TSLA’s actual market price.
Do not be the one that is catching the falling knives. Cut out the noises and definitely cut out Cathie Wood’s propagandas.
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Do you think TSLA will be able to surprise market with its quarterly earnings, in a good way ?
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Do you think investors will once again be taken by Mr Musk storytelling and buy up a storm ?
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