To The Moon

Thoughts on the Guidance Impact on Stock Trends  

I believe the decision by United Overseas Bank and DBS to adjust or pause their two thousand twenty-five guidance due to uncertainties from United States tariffs will have a noticeable effect on stock trends. The drop in UOBs share price by nearly two percent and DBSs cautious outlook suggest that investors might adopt a wait-and-see approach. I think this uncertainty could lead to short-term volatility, with stocks potentially trending downward until clearer economic signals emerge. However, the resilience in loan growth and stable profits might provide some support, so I would not rule out a recovery if market sentiment improves.

Analysis of UOBs Performance in the First Quarter  

I am somewhat impressed by UOBs ability to maintain a stable net profit of one point forty-nine billion dollars in the first quarter, even though it fell short of expectations. The decision to pause guidance due to United States tariffs shows a prudent approach, and I appreciate the banks effort to strengthen provision coverage amid macroeconomic challenges. I think this stability, despite the tariff concerns, reflects a solid operational foundation, though the increased credit costs to thirty-five basis points do raise some concerns for future profitability.

UOB

Evaluation of DBSs First Quarter Results  

I find DBSs first quarter performance interesting, with a two percent drop in net profit to two point eighty-nine billion dollars, yet it still beat Bloomberg estimates. The banks decision to set aside general allowances of two hundred five million dollars due to tariff uncertainties indicates a proactive stance, which I respect. I believe the record pre-tax profit of three point forty-four billion dollars and the seventeen point three percent return on equity show underlying strength, though the global minimum tax impact might weigh on future earnings.

DBS

Comparison of Strength Between UOB and DBS in the First Quarter  

I think DBS appears stronger than UOB in the first quarter based on its ability to exceed analyst expectations despite a profit decline, compared to UOBs stable but underwhelming result. DBSs higher net profit and robust non-interest income growth give it an edge, while UOBs unchanged profit and lack of guidance might signal more vulnerability to tariff-related risks. That said, I recognize UOBs resilience in maintaining profit levels, so the gap might not be as wide as it seems at first glance.

Expectations for Future Performance  

I am cautiously optimistic about the future performance of both banks, but I think it heavily depends on how the United States tariff situation unfolds. If the impact remains unclear, I expect both UOB and DBS to face pressure on loan growth and net interest margins, potentially leading to lower earnings in two thousand twenty-five. However, I also see potential for recovery if they can leverage their strong balance sheets and capital return strategies, like DBSs seventy-five cents total dividend, to maintain investor confidence. 

In general, I am still bullish for Singapore banks for long term. $UOB(U11.SI)$  $DBS Group Holdings(D05.SI)$  $ocbc bank(O39.SI)$  

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