To The Moon

$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$

As of early June 2025, AMD stock (ticker: AMD) is still down more than 4% year-to-date, despite showing signs of a recovery. Just a few months ago, shares were trading near $80, but since then, the stock has rebounded to around $115 per share.

That’s a solid bounce, but many long-term investors are now wondering: Where could AMD be in five years? Could this stock become a multi-bagger by 2030, or is it already priced for perfection?

In this video, I'm going to take a comprehensive long-term look at AMD. I’ll analyze key financial metrics, growth drivers, risk factors, and valuation scenarios to forecast where AMD’s stock price could realistically be by the end of 2030.

Along the way, I’ll walk you through all the estimates I’m using, the data sources I’m relying on, and the exact assumptions I’m building into my model—so you can judge for yourself whether you agree with my prediction, or whether you think it's too bullish or too conservative.

Why Long-Term Forecasts Matter

Short-term price action is often noisy and driven by sentiment, macro headlines, or short-term results. But over the long term, stock prices tend to follow earnings growth. That’s the foundation of this analysis.

By focusing on AMD’s future earnings and applying a reasonable multiple to those earnings, we can estimate a range of fair value targets. These won’t be perfect predictions—but they help put today’s price into context and guide long-term investment decisions.

Projected Revenue Growth

While earnings growth is often seen as the most important measure of a company’s financial strength, sustainable profit expansion is nearly impossible without consistent revenue growth. In other words, a business can’t grow its bottom line indefinitely without increasing its top line. That’s why analyzing revenue trends and forecasts is essential for evaluating a company’s long-term potential.

For Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Wall Street analysts currently project revenue of $7.41 billion for the ongoing quarter, reflecting a 27% year-over-year increase. Full-year forecasts are similarly optimistic, with revenue expected to reach $31.78 billion in the current fiscal year—a +23.2% increase from the prior year—and $37.05 billion next year, representing +16.6% year-over-year growth.

Recent Earnings Performance and Surprise History

In its most recently reported quarter, AMD posted revenue of $7.44 billion, marking a strong 35.9% year-over-year increase. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.96, compared to $0.62 in the same quarter last year—demonstrating healthy margin expansion alongside revenue growth.

Notably, these results outperformed analyst expectations. The company exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $7.12 billion in revenue by 4.45%, and beat the consensus EPS estimate by 3.23%.

AMD has built a strong track record of outperforming expectations, delivering positive surprises in both EPS and revenue in each of the last four quarters. This consistent performance underscores the company’s operational momentum and reinforces confidence in its forward guidance.

Step 1: What Is Wall Street Expecting in 2027?

We begin with Wall Street’s current earnings expectations. According to the analysts tracked by Finch, AMD is expected to generate $6.88 in earnings per share (EPS) in 2027. This estimate is based on a blend of top-down and bottom-up modeling from professionals who closely monitor AMD's fundamentals.

The projected EPS growth leading into that number is as follows:

• 2025 EPS growth: 20%

• 2026 EPS growth: 43%

• 2027 EPS growth: 20%

These estimates reflect optimism around AMD’s data center business, especially in AI and high-performance computing, while also factoring in some drag from weaker segments like PCs and gaming.

Step 2: Estimating EPS Through 2031

To estimate AMD’s earnings for 2030, we need to project EPS growth beyond 2027. I’m using a 20% annualized EPS growth rate between 2027 and 2031. That’s not overly aggressive, considering that AMD is expected to grow faster than that in 2026—and it's relatively in line with historical trends during growth phases.

Using 20% annual growth for four years (2028–2031), AMD’s projected EPS for 2031 would be:

$6.88 × (1.20)^4 = $14.27 per share

This is our base EPS estimate for 2031, which we will use to back into a stock price forecast for the end of 2030, using a forward P/E ratio—just like Wall Street analysts typically do.

Step 3: Valuation Scenarios Based on Forward P/E

At the time of this analysis, AMD is trading at a forward P/E of 27.46. That multiple reflects market optimism about AMD’s role in AI, especially in the data center segment, which is now the most valuable part of its business.

Let’s now apply a range of forward P/E multiples to the projected 2031 EPS of $14.27 to estimate AMD’s share price at the end of 2030:

So depending on the P/E multiple investors are willing to assign in 2030, AMD’s stock could range anywhere from $314 to $427 per share, based on this EPS trajectory.

My Personal Target: $375–$400 per Share

After reviewing the EPS estimates, current trends in the semiconductor industry, and AMD’s positioning in AI infrastructure, my personal forecast for AMD stock by the end of 2030 falls in the range of:

$375 to $400 per share

That would represent a more than 3x return from today’s $115 price point—and I believe it’s a reasonable expectation for long-term investors with a high risk tolerance and a five-year+ time horizon.

Key Risks to the Forecast

However, this forecast is not guaranteed. Several things could go wrong, and it’s important to be aware of them:

1. Slower-than-expected EPS growth

If AMD’s earnings fail to grow at 20% annually between 2027 and 2031—perhaps due to a cyclical downturn or increased competition—this would significantly reduce the upside potential.

2. Segment-specific weaknesses

Half of AMD’s revenue still comes from segments outside of AI: personal computing, graphics, and gaming. These areas are under pressure, with flat or declining demand. If they deteriorate faster than expected, they could weigh down AMD’s total earnings power.

3. Valuation contraction

If investor sentiment turns, or if the AI hype cycle fades, forward P/E multiples could compress. Even with strong EPS growth, a lower multiple would result in a lower stock price.

4. Nvidia’s dominance

AMD’s ability to gain market share from Nvidia in data center GPUs is a key variable. If it fails to do so, much of the upside in the AI thesis could evaporate.

Final Thoughts: Should You Invest in AMD?

AMD is not a low-risk stock. The company’s future is highly dependent on its ability to compete in high-growth markets like AI, while also maintaining performance in its legacy businesses.

That said, if AMD executes well—and if it captures even a modest share of Nvidia’s current AI stronghold—the upside could be substantial.

This is why I continue to rate AMD as one of my top nine stocks to buy for 2025, and why I believe it remains a strong candidate for long-term growth investors, especially those with a high risk appetite.

Where do YOU think AMD will be in 2030? Drop your forecast in the comments below—and if you liked this deep-dive, hit that like button and subscribe for more long-term stock research.

Disclaimer: I want to make it clear that I am not a financial advisor, and nothing I say is intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Additionally, it's important to remember that there are no guarantees or certainties in trading or investing, and you should never invest money that you can't afford to lose.

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