To The Moon

$Amazon.com(AMZN)$

Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) has experienced a somewhat challenging start to 2025. As of mid-June, the stock is down by over 5% year-to-date, reflecting not only sector-wide volatility in tech stocks but also investor apprehension stemming from geopolitical events. One notable catalyst that unsettled investors was the imposition of tariffs around Liberation Day, which triggered a sell-off that saw Amazon’s shares dip below $170 in late April. This sudden pullback caught many off guard, especially considering Amazon's reputation as a consistent long-term growth stock.

Yet, as any seasoned investor knows, short-term price movements often obscure the bigger picture. Despite the recent softness, I believe Amazon remains a highly attractive investment with significant upside potential over the next decade. Instead of fixating on immediate fluctuations, this article will explore Amazon’s prospects over a longer timeframe, aiming to answer a key question: Where could Amazon’s stock price realistically be by the end of 2030?

To answer this, I’m going to lay out the assumptions, data points, and valuation methods that inform my forecast. This includes an overview of consensus earnings estimates, my chosen growth rates, valuation multiples, and scenario analyses to illustrate a range of possible outcomes. Importantly, I’ll share all my calculations transparently so you can understand how I arrive at my conclusions and judge for yourself whether my outlook is too optimistic, too pessimistic, or just right.

Setting the Stage: Why a Long-Term Perspective Matters

When evaluating a company as large and multifaceted as Amazon, it’s vital to move beyond daily market noise and instead focus on the core drivers of value creation. Amazon’s business has evolved dramatically over the years—from its early days as an online bookstore to a global behemoth operating in cloud computing, digital advertising, e-commerce logistics, entertainment, and more.

While the retail segment remains significant, much of Amazon’s profit growth today stems from AWS (Amazon Web Services), which dominates the cloud infrastructure market with high-margin services critical to businesses worldwide. Meanwhile, the company’s advertising business continues to scale rapidly, leveraging Amazon’s vast customer data and digital platform.

This diversity, combined with Amazon’s relentless innovation and investments in automation, robotics, and AI, means the company’s future earnings potential could be far greater than what the current stock price implies.

Forecasting Amazon’s Earnings Per Share (EPS) Through 2031

At the heart of any stock valuation is earnings, and here’s where consensus estimates give us a solid foundation. Wall Street analysts currently forecast that Amazon will deliver $8.93 in earnings per share by 2027, up from $7.25 in 2026—representing a robust year-over-year growth rate of around 23%.

For my projection, I’ve opted for a slightly more conservative approach, assuming Amazon’s EPS will grow by a steady 20% annually from 2027 to 2031. This assumption accounts for potential market fluctuations, competitive pressures, and regulatory risks, while still recognizing Amazon’s growth runway.

By applying this 20% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), Amazon’s projected EPS evolves as follows:

The $18.52 EPS figure in 2031 is particularly important because I will use it to estimate Amazon’s stock price at the end of 2030 based on a one-year forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple.

Valuation Metrics: Understanding Amazon’s Forward P/E Ratio

Amazon’s current forward P/E ratio stands at approximately 33x, which is on the lower side compared to its historical range going back to 2023. The stock has previously traded with forward P/Es as low as 27 to 28, indicating that the market could potentially assign a lower valuation multiple if conditions warrant.

To incorporate valuation variability and risk, I performed a scenario analysis using a range of plausible forward P/E multiples:

Even in the most conservative case, Amazon’s stock price would more than double from current levels. At the upper end, a nearly 3x increase is possible if Amazon continues to deliver earnings growth and maintains its current valuation multiple.

Why Earnings Growth Will Drive Amazon’s Stock Price

While valuation multiples can fluctuate due to market sentiment, interest rates, and investor appetite, the key fundamental driver of Amazon’s stock price over the next decade is earnings per share growth.

Amazon’s diversified portfolio, its leadership in cloud computing, and expanding advertising revenue create multiple levers for sustainable profit expansion. This contrasts with some high-profile growth stocks like Tesla, which currently trade more on narrative and investor enthusiasm than on consistent earnings.

There are also companies that temporarily detach from fundamentals—such as meme stocks like AMC or GameStop—whose valuations are more volatile and sentiment-driven. Amazon, however, has historically traded in closer alignment with its financial results, making earnings a more reliable valuation anchor.

Potential Risks and Challenges Ahead

No investment is without risk, and Amazon faces several headwinds worth considering:

• Regulatory scrutiny: As Amazon grows, antitrust and data privacy regulators globally are increasingly focused on its business practices. Potential fines, restrictions, or forced divestitures could impact profitability.

• Competition: AWS faces stiff competition from Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud. The retail segment also contends with Walmart, Alibaba, and regional e-commerce platforms.

• Macroeconomic factors: Inflation, interest rate hikes, and global trade tensions could affect consumer spending and capital expenditure trends, influencing Amazon’s growth trajectory.

• Execution risk: Maintaining 20% EPS growth over several years requires flawless execution, innovation, and scaling efficiencies.

While these risks exist, they are well-known and, in my view, largely priced into the current valuation.

Final Price Target: What to Expect by the End of 2030

Based on the analysis, my forecast is that Amazon’s stock price will trade within a range of $550 to $600 per share by December 2030. This estimate reflects:

• Continued EPS growth averaging 20% annually through 2031

• A forward P/E multiple holding between 30 and 33, consistent with recent historical valuation levels

• The company’s strong competitive positioning and growth in AWS, advertising, and e-commerce

This represents a significant premium over current trading prices and highlights the potential rewards for patient investors willing to look beyond short-term market noise.

Why I Rank Amazon Among My Top Stocks to Buy Today

I recently updated my Amazon price target on June 2, 2025, reflecting a more bullish stance than my previous forecast from April 2024. The increased confidence comes from improved earnings visibility, strong AWS momentum, and a clearer path to margin expansion.

Because of these factors, Amazon ranks among my Top 9 Stocks to Buy Right Now, reflecting my conviction in its ability to deliver both growth and shareholder value over the next decade.

How You Can Access My Full Valuation Models and Recommendations

For investors interested in deeper analysis, I offer access to over 200 discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation models, including Amazon and many other high-quality companies. This is available through my channel membership at the Investor Tier for less than $15 per month, providing:

• Regularly updated price targets and earnings forecasts

• In-depth financial models and scenario analyses

• Exclusive insights into market-moving data and valuation trends

A Word of Caution: Always Do Your Own Research

While I’m optimistic on Amazon’s prospects, this analysis should not be taken as personalized investment advice. Every investor has unique risk tolerances and financial goals. I strongly encourage you to conduct your own due diligence and consult with financial professionals before making any investment decisions.

Conclusion

Amazon is a company that continues to evolve and expand into new markets with impressive scale and innovation. Its stock price may have experienced some recent setbacks, but the underlying fundamentals paint a much brighter long-term picture.

If the company delivers on its growth trajectory and the market maintains reasonable valuation multiples, the stock could offer exceptional returns for investors who remain patient and disciplined.

What do you think Amazon’s stock price will be in 2030? Feel free to share your thoughts or questions in the comments below!

Disclaimer: I want to make it clear that I am not a financial advisor, and nothing I say is intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Additionally, it's important to remember that there are no guarantees or certainties in trading or investing, and you should never invest money that you can't afford to lose.

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