After some thought, it seems we are currently in the topping phase. So, despite the previous short squeeze, bears are still doubling down on short positions.
As shown in the chart, the yellow-highlighted options indicate the positions opened by bears. One of the most significant bearish trades is the sell-call of in-the-money 130 calls: $NVDA 20250711 130.0 CALL$ , with 40,000 contracts opened. However, quite a few of these positions were closed at today’s market open, likely due to the rising stock price triggering substantial margin calls.
Institutional sell-call positions at 146–147 were also forced to close, rolling into 155–157.5.
On the bearish side, there are short put positions for the 142 puts expiring this week and the 146 puts expiring on July 11. Although the recent rally has been very tempting, and some bulls have bet on the stock reaching 160, I prefer to wait and see.
On the bullish side, there’s a notable long-call roll trade: closing the 120 calls $NVDA 20250718 120.0 CALL$ and rolling into the 146 calls $NVDA 20250718 146.0 CALL$ . Judging by the trade value, this seems to be a disguised exit. If the trader were still optimistic, they would have rolled to a longer-term expiration instead.
Institutions were forced to close their positions on Tuesday and rolled sell calls into the 141–142 range, hedging at 145. The result was yet another short squeeze at Wednesday’s market open.
On the bullish side, there is a notable sell-call trade for the 145 calls expiring in July: $MU 20250718 145.0 CALL$ . The bearish price expectation is between 121 and 114, which is still within the expected volatility range. A wide strangle strategy could involve selling options outside the 115–135 range.
Tesla’s normal trading range appears to be between 300 and 350.
On Tuesday, CRCL’s stock price dropped 15%, closing at 222. For the 200 puts expiring this week, many bearish positions have already been closed for profit. The next bearish target is 150, although the quantity of positions there is smaller than at 200. It’s likely that the 200 level will remain a battleground for some time.
Interestingly, near Tuesday’s close, someone purchased a large number of 270 calls expiring this week: $CRCL 20250627 270.0 CALL$ , with 22,000 contracts opened. Judging by Wednesday’s price action, it’s very likely that these bullish calls will expire worthless.
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
