🎁What the Tigers Say | Market at Highs—How Will You Trade July?
@TigerClub：
July has historically been kind to investors—since 1950, the S&P 500 has posted gains 45 times, averaging +1.3% for the month (Dow Jones Market Data). With the market kicking off Q3 at all-time highs, how should you position? Did you make any moves on the first trading day of July? Share your trades and thoughts—will this July live up to its bullish reputation? 🎁Special Notes: Whoever showed up on the” What the Tigers Say” column will receive 100 Tiger Coins and an exclusive interview invitation to honor your contribution. Click titles to read the full analysis: 1. @yourcelesttyy: Key Points: Key Drivers for July 2025 Earnings Season: Q2 earnings from tech giants like Nvidia, Microsoft, and consumer names like Nike could drive sector-specific rallies or sell-offs, depending on guidance. Geopolitical Tensions: The Israel-Iran conflict, with Brent crude at $75 per barrel, is boosting energy and defense stocks but pressuring risk assets like tech. Federal Reserve Outlook: The Fed’s June 17-18 meeting signaled two 2025 rate cuts, but a hawkish shift could spark a 5-10% pullback to 5,800-6,000. Trade Dynamics: Ongoing U.S.-China trade talks and Trump’s tariff threats add uncertainty, potentially impacting tech and consumer discretionary sectors. Historical July Performance Stocks to Watch: Riding the Rally The following stocks are poised to capitalize on July’s potential, driven by sector trends and catalysts: Nvidia (NVDA): Up 171% YTD, Nvidia’s AI chip dominance could drive a 10% rally to $160 if Q2 earnings beat expectations. Support at $140 holds firm. Microsoft (MSFT): Gained 12.5% YTD, with Azure’s 28% growth fueling upside to $500. Support at $475 is key. ExxonMobil (XOM): Up 3% recently, targeting $130 if oil hits $80 amid Middle East tensions. Support at $120. Lockheed Martin (LMT): Up 5%, eyeing $550 as defense budgets grow. Support at $500. Procter & Gamble (PG): A defensive pick with a 3% dividend yield, targeting $175 for stability. Support at $160. Risks to the July Rally While July’s historical strength is promising, several risks could derail the rally: Geopolitical Volatility: The Israel-Iran conflict could escalate, pushing oil prices to $80-$100 and triggering a risk-off sell-off in tech and consumer stocks. Earnings Misses: Weak guidance from tech or consumer giants could spark sector-specific declines, dragging the S&P 500 lower. Federal Reserve Signals: A hawkish Fed stance, signaling fewer rate cuts, could pressure growth stocks, with a potential 5-10% pullback to 5,800-6,000. Trade Tensions: Trump’s tariff threats on Chinese imports could hit tech and consumer discretionary sectors, adding volatility. Short-Term Plays Buy Nvidia on Dip: Enter at $140-$145, target $160, stop at $135. A 10-15% gain is possible if Q2 earnings shine. Buy ExxonMobil: Grab at $122, target $130, stop at $118. A 6-8% gain if oil hits $80. Options Straddle: Buy calls/puts on SPY at $614 to profit from volatility around earnings or geopolitical news. Long-Term Investments Hold Microsoft: Buy at $475, target $550 over 12 months, for 15-20% upside with AI and cloud growth. Hold Procter & Gamble: Add at $160, target $175, for 10% growth and 3% dividend yield. Diversify with Energy ETF ( $Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLE)$ ): Buy at $90, target $95, for broad energy exposure. Hedge Strategies VIXY ETF: Buy at $15, target $18, stop at $13, to hedge against market volatility from geopolitical or earnings risks. SPY ETF Puts: Use puts at $614 to protect against a 5-10% S&P 500 pullback. Gold ETF (GLD): Buy at $200, target $220, stop at $190, as a safe-haven hedge. My Trading Plan I’m cautiously optimistic about July’s historical strength but mindful of volatility risks. I’ll buy Nvidia at $140-$145, targeting $160, with a $135 stop, betting on AI-driven earnings. For stability, I’ll add Procter & Gamble at $160, targeting $175, with a $155 stop. I’m hedging with VIXY at $15, targeting $18, and keeping 20% cash to seize dips if geopolitical tensions or earnings surprises shake markets. I’ll monitor oil prices, Fed signals, and Q2 earnings for trading cues. 2. @HMH : Key Points: ⚔️ Strategic Trading Playbook Here’s how traders might tackle the July rally: Momentum Plays Ride strength in leading sectors—especially AI, crypto-finance, and defence tech. Use tight stop-losses, and consider trailing stops to lock in profits. Seasonal Rotations Rotate into July-friendly sectors: historically, industrials, discretionary, and semiconductors have outperformed. July also favours mid-cap breakouts. Hedged Positions Deploy vertical spreads or collars on overheated names. Example: sell a call and buy a higher strike call to cap upside while mitigating downside risk. 0DTE or Short-Term Options Use zero-day options for event-driven trades (e.g. CPI release, Fed minutes). But stay tactical—theta decay and volatility spikes are unforgiving. Inverse & Volatility Hedges Keep some protection via VIX calls or inverse ETFs if the rally overextends. Markets at ATH are rarely smooth—expect whipsaws. 3. @WeChats: Key Points: 🌍 Macro Signals in July 2025 Here's what I'm watching this month from a macro lens: Fed Policy: Still no cut, but rate pause likely holding through September CPI + Jobs: Inflation is trending sideways; June jobs print showed modest softness — good news for a Fed pause Earnings Season: Q2 results kick off mid-July — with tech and semis leading expectations Geopolitics: No major shocks yet, but Taiwan trade tensions are a potential July wildcard 🎯 My July Strategy: Tactical and Rotational I'm leaning cautiously long, but not all-in — and I'm managing exposure based on sector rotation and short-term overbought conditions. My Key Moves: ✅ Staying long $QQQ: Riding semis + AI tailwind, but keeping stops tight 🟡 Lightened $SPY around 550**: Took partial profits after ATH breakout 🔻 Short $IWM (Russell 2000)**: Betting on small-cap underperformance vs large-cap tech 🛡️ Hedging with Aug puts on $SPY: Volatility is cheap, so protection is inexpensive Timeframe: Mostly short-term swing trades (1–3 weeks) Still DCA-ing into long-term tech ETF holdings monthly 🔍 Technical Levels I'm Watching Here are my key chart levels as we trade July's breakout momentum: $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ Resistance: 550 Support: 540 (breakout retest zone) $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ ATH near 552 Watching for pullbacks to 540–542 zone Momentum: RSI on $SPY near 68 — approaching overbought MACD still rising = trend confirmation 50-day MA still upward sloping on both $SPY and $QQQ 4. @Shyon: Key Points: I also took advantage of UnitedHealth's $UnitedHealth(UNH)$ Bullish/看多 rebound, which seemed like a strong pick given its recent performance. The post mentions that markets often set new all-time highs around July 3rd, and I'm hopeful this year follows that prophecy. It's always interesting to see how these patterns play out, and I'm curious to track how my trades perform in the coming days. 5. @JiaDeName: Key Points: Buy the dip as per normal. Some of us would use the auto invest function to keep buying regardless of market forces. As for me, I'd just set aside money each month. When Trump opens his mouth to talk shit, or when the next pandemic arrises, that's when I buy in more. For now, maybe buy mini dips? 6. @KKLEE: Key Points: Below is a playbook to navigate a market at all‑time highs without succumbing to either euphoria or paralysis. 1. Respect the Trend — But Don’t Chase Blindly Momentum still rules. Strength begets strength, especially when breadth is improving and earnings momentum is intact. Avoid impulsive entries. Instead of market orders at the open, place staged limit buys on mild down‑days or intraday dips. Identify leadership. Focus on sectors printing higher highs with rising volume—currently AI semis, cloud, and select industrial innovators. 2. Lean Into July Catalysts Q2 Earnings Season (mid‑July kick‑off) Plan: Hold core winners through prints if conviction is high; otherwise use options (calls or collars) to ride upside while capping risk. Fed Speak and June CPI (early‑to‑mid July) Plan: Expect algorithmic spikes around data releases. Consider short‑term straddles on rate‑sensitive indices or stay flat until dust settles. Post‑holiday Liquidity Plan: U.S. markets often drift on low volume between July 4th and earnings. Use that lull to scale into quality laggards rather than chasing hot names. 3. Rotate, Don’t Liquidate Trim stretched positions (up 30 %+ YTD) by 10–20 %, freeing cash for new ideas. Add to under‑owned sectors showing fresh momentum—financials on curve‑steepening, energy on geopolitical tension, select small‑caps on improving breadth. Rebalance weekly, not monthly during earnings season; leadership can change fast. 4. Deploy Risk Controls While Staying Long Tighten stop‑losses beneath recent breakout levels rather than trailing too loosely. Use protective puts one‑to‑three months out on core index ETFs instead of selling winners outright. Keep 10–15 % cash as “dry powder.” In an upward‑sloping market, cash is an offensive tool—ready for any earnings‑related air‑pockets. 5. Watch for Red Flags Parabolic charts with negative divergences (price up, RSI down) often precede healthy pullbacks. Crowded positioning in AI megacaps or single‑theme ETFs can amplify downside surprises. Bond‑equity disconnects (yields surging while growth stocks stay bid) signal stress—stay alert. 7. @BABY SPACEROCK: Key Points: Will July really bring ATH though? What if we have chaos? Backdating one year ago, indeed July was a profitable month but that's because Trump got shot, driving markets up. However, a month after being shot, stocks started falling. This time round, I fear the drops and dips are inevitable when tariffs come into effect again. We all know how erratic Trump can be. 8. @Ah_Meng: Key Points: Just see Nasdaq and S&P making all time highs! I have a couple of options shorting the Indices but so far, as we know, they have not turned out well. As usual, I have been early. Today's pre-open seems a little different. Although we have the "beautiful bill" supposedly clearing the two houses this week, in anticipation, USD has been dropping like flies lately. On top of the expected ballooning of US debts that would mean that US government is likely struggle to pay it's interest. This in turn results in an increased interest rates to attract lenders. What follows is lower growth, if not recession. US should in fact thank its lucky ⭐ if its treasury auctions are even able to attract enough takers! Why? I have mentioned earlier about the movement of USD. It's not a coincidence. Central banks all around the world 🌎 are losing confident in US and USD. Did you also notice the recent accompanied increase in precious metals prices? Yup, the stars are aligned, as I had mentioned many a times before. To top it up in July, we have the 90 days ending of tariff pause... Precious metals like gold, silver, platinum and palladium are not going away anytime soon. In fact, with USD coming down, gold and silver are going to be the new world default assets class. Don't take my word, just see the behaviour of those prices movement. If you want short indices, be careful not to go early like me... Or go small... Until price actions set in... Remove any risky bets. There are times to be brave. Now is perhaps not the best time. Questions for you: With the market kicking off Q3 at all-time highs, how should you position? Did you make any moves on the first trading day of July? 🎁Prizes 🐯 All valid comments on the following post will receive 5 Tiger Coins. We strongly recommend selecting the "Also repost" button when posting a comment to receive more rewards. ⏰Duration 9 July (24pm EDT)
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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