To The Moon

The stock market on July 11, 2025, is a high-octane mix of opportunity and uncertainty, with the S&P 500 climbing to 6,263.26 and the Nasdaq hitting record highs at 20,630. The VIX’s drop to 15.94 signals cautious optimism, but Trump’s tariff deadline (August 1) and Q2 earnings season keep investors on edge. AI breakthroughs like xAI’s Grok-4, integrated into Tesla vehicles, and Bitcoin’s $118,000 milestone are driving tech and crypto stocks, while tariff talks with 14 countries add volatility. This report highlights key market movements, top stocks to watch, and strategic trading opportunities to capitalize on July 11’s potential while managing risks.

Market Landscape: Catalysts Driving Action

Key Market Movements

• Tariff Negotiations: Trump’s tariff letters to 14 countries, including 25% duties on Japan and South Korea, have a deadline of August 1, 2025. The White House’s softened stance, calling deadlines “not critical,” boosts hopes for deals, but the VIX at 15.94 reflects lingering uncertainty.

• Q2 Earnings Season: Tech giants like Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), and Tesla (TSLA) are set to report, with earnings beats potentially fueling rallies. Tesla’s 4.73% surge on July 10, driven by Grok-4 integration, sets the stage.

• AI Breakthroughs: xAI’s Grok-4, with PhD-level capabilities, is rolling out to Tesla vehicles next week, boosting TSLA and AI stocks like Palantir (PLTR). The AI datacenter market is projected to hit $563 billion by 2028, per Citi.

• Crypto Surge: Bitcoin’s $118,000 high, fueled by $150 billion in ETF inflows and corporate buying, lifts Coinbase (COIN) and MicroStrategy (MSTR). The White House Crypto Summit (July 18) could add momentum.

• Economic Data: The U.S. CPI (July 9) showed inflation at 2.7%, with Non-Farm Payrolls (July 12) looming. A dovish Fed could boost growth stocks; hawkish signals might trigger a 5-10% S&P 500 pullback to 5,800-6,000.

• Geopolitical Risks: The Israel-Iran conflict, with oil at $75 per barrel, supports energy stocks like ExxonMobil (XOM) but pressures consumer sectors.

Social media sentiment on X is bullish, with users hyping Tesla’s AI pivot, Nvidia’s $4 trillion milestone, and Bitcoin’s rally, but tariff fears spark warnings of a “market correction.”

Stocks to Watch: The July 11 Hot List

Here’s a curated list of stocks poised for action today, driven by earnings, AI, crypto, and tariff developments:

• Nvidia ( $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ ): Up 171% YTD to $160.98, with Q2 earnings (July 29) expected to hit $47 billion. Citi’s $190 target reflects a $563 billion AI TAM. Support at $150, resistance at $190.

• Microsoft ( $Microsoft(MSFT)$ ): Up 30% YTD to $475.00, with Q2 earnings forecasting $65 billion revenue. Azure’s 28% growth targets $550, with support at $450.

• Tesla ( $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ ): Up 10% YTD to $315.35, with a 4.73% surge on Grok-4 integration. Robotaxi updates target $350, with support at $280.

• Coinbase ( $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ ): Up 20% YTD to $299.00, riding Bitcoin’s $118K surge. Tokenized stock plans target $350, with support at $280.

• Palantir ( $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ ): Up 83.95% YTD to $139.12, with 39% Q1 revenue growth ($884 million). Government contracts target $155, with support at $120.

• UnitedHealth (UNH): Down 35% YTD to $300.00, but a defensive play with a 2.8% dividend yield. Targets $436.83, with support at $280.

• AMD (AMD): Up 16.04% YTD to $138.00, with MI325X challenging Nvidia. Targets $168, with support at $130.

• ON Semiconductor (ON): Up 3.03% recently to $75.00, strong in automotive chips. Targets $90, with support at $70.

• STMicroelectronics (STM): Up 3.66% to $40.00, leading in automotive microcontrollers. Targets $50, with support at $38.

• NXP Semiconductors (NXPI): Up 1.2% to $220.00, with ADAS growth. Targets $250, with support at $210.

Key News and Highlights

Earnings Season in Focus

• Nvidia (NVDA): Q2 earnings (July 29) are expected to show $47 billion in revenue, up 70% year-over-year, driven by Blackwell and sovereign AI deals. A beat could push NVDA to $190-$200; a miss might test $150.

• Microsoft (MSFT): Q2 earnings (July 29) forecast $65 billion revenue and $2.78 EPS, with Azure’s 28% growth key. A strong report could lift MSFT to $550; a miss might drag it to $450.

• Tesla (TSLA): Q2 earnings (July 29) project $45 billion revenue and $1.10 EPS. Grok-4 integration and Robotaxi updates could drive TSLA to $350; a weak outlook might test $280.

Tariff Negotiations

Trump’s tariff letters to 14 countries, with 25% duties on Japan and South Korea, have a softened stance, boosting hopes for deals. Successful negotiations could lift tech (NVDA, MSFT) and auto stocks (TSLA); failures might trigger a 5-10% S&P 500 pullback to 5,800-6,000.

AI Breakthroughs

xAI’s Grok-4, with PhD-level capabilities, is integrating into Tesla vehicles next week, boosting TSLA’s 4.73% surge on July 10. Palantir’s 71% U.S. commercial revenue growth and Nvidia’s 90%+ AI chip market share fuel optimism, with the AI market projected to hit $563 billion by 2028.

Crypto Surge

Bitcoin’s $118,000 high, driven by $150 billion in ETF inflows and corporate buying, lifts COIN and MSTR. The White House Crypto Summit (July 18) could add momentum, with X users predicting $150,000-$200,000 for BTC.

Economic and Geopolitical Context

• U.S. CPI (July 9): Inflation at 2.7% supports dovish Fed expectations, boosting growth stocks like NVDA and MSFT. A higher CPI could pressure markets.

• Non-Farm Payrolls (July 12): Strong job growth could delay rate cuts, impacting tech; weak data might accelerate easing, lifting NVDA and TSLA.

• Geopolitical Risks: The Israel-Iran conflict and oil at $75 per barrel support XOM but pressure consumer stocks like META and SOFI.

• Trade Tensions: U.S.-China talks and EU negotiations could sway tech and auto stocks, with TSLA and NVDA vulnerable to supply chain disruptions.

Trading Opportunities

Short-Term Plays

• Buy Nvidia on Dip: Enter at $150-$155, target $190, stop at $140. A 18-27% gain if Q2 earnings beat.

• Buy Tesla on Dip: Grab at $280-$290, target $350, stop at $270. A 21-25% gain if Grok-4 or Robotaxi updates impress.

• Options Straddle: Buy $315 calls/puts on TSLA or $140 calls/puts on PLTR for earnings volatility.

Long-Term Investments

• Hold Microsoft: Buy at $450-$460, target $550, for 15-22% upside with cloud/AI growth.

• Hold Coinbase: Buy at $280-$290, target $350, for 20-25% upside with crypto momentum.

• Diversify with Tech ETF (XLK): Buy at $200, target $220, stop at $190, for broad tech exposure.

Hedge Strategies

• VIXY ETF: Buy at $15, target $18, stop at $13, to hedge against tariff or earnings volatility.

• SPY ETF Puts: Use puts at $614 to protect against a 5-10% S&P 500 pullback.

• Gold ETF (GLD): Buy at $200, target $220, stop at $190, as a safe-haven hedge.

My Trading Plan

I’m bullish on Nvidia and Coinbase for their AI and crypto-driven growth but cautious about tariff and geopolitical risks. I’ll buy NVDA at $150-$155, targeting $190, with a $140 stop, and COIN at $280-$290, targeting $350, with a $260 stop. For diversification, I’ll add TSLA at $280-$290, targeting $350, with a $270 stop, betting on Grok-4 and Robotaxi momentum. I’m hedging with VIXY at $15, targeting $18, and keeping 20% cash to seize dips if tariffs (e.g., U.S.-China trade tensions) or geopolitical tensions (Israel-Iran conflict) shake markets. I’ll monitor Q2 earnings, Non-Farm Payrolls (July 12), and tariff negotiations for cues.

The Bigger Picture

July 11, 2025, is a pivotal day with tariff negotiations, Q2 earnings, and AI breakthroughs like Grok-4 shaping market direction. Nvidia, Microsoft, Tesla, Coinbase, and Palantir lead the charge, driven by AI and crypto momentum, while UnitedHealth offers defensive stability. AMD, ON, STM, and NXPI add second-tier chip exposure. Tariff risks, geopolitical tensions, and high valuations (PLTR at 250x P/E, COIN at 30x) could trigger volatility, with a potential 5-10% S&P 500 pullback. Investors should buy on dips for long-term gains, use options for volatility plays, and hedge with VIXY or GLD to manage risks. The market’s a wild ride—pick your winners and trade smart.

What’s your top stock pick for July 11? Are you buying, hedging, or waiting? Share your strategy below! 🎁

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📝 Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

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