To The Moon

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Economic Calendar (14Jul25)

Economic Outlook (with help from Grok)

• The most watched news should be the CPI (inflation) and PPI (inflation hitting producers). This would have some implications for how the Federal Reserve approaches the coming interest rate decision.

• CPI forecasts (Core at 0.3% MoM, YoY at 2.4%) indicate a warming inflation environment. If actual data aligns or undershoots, it could reduce expectations of Fed rate hikes, supporting risk assets.

• A modest PPI increase (0.2%) suggests producer price pressures, reinforcing a growing inflation outlook.

• Weak retail sales forecasts (Core at 0.3%, overall at 0.0%) point to sluggish consumer spending, which could signal a broader economic slowdown if the trend continues.

• Initial Jobless Claims at 227K previously suggested stability. Any significant deviation could influence perceptions of labor market health, a key factor for Fed policy.

• The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index at -4.0 indicates ongoing contraction. A further decline could highlight manufacturing weakness.

• Crude oil inventories’ prior build (7.070M) suggests oversupply. Continued builds might ease energy costs, while a drawdown could add inflationary pressure.

Market Implications

• Equities: A probable higher CPI and retail sales weakness might pressure stocks due to growth concerns.

• Bonds: Rising inflation data could prop up Treasury yields, supporting bond prices, especially if consumer weakness signals economic softening.

• Commodities: Oil prices may decline with another inventory build, potentially benefiting consumers but pressuring energy stocks.

Earnings Calendar (14Jul25)

Q2/2025 earnings start strong this week. There are notable banking earnings that include JP Morgan, Citi, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, State Street, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, American Express and Goldman Sachs. The other earnings of interest are United, TSMC, Netflix, Pepsico, Abbott and Johnson & Johnson.

Let us look into the recent performance of TSMC

For TSMC, the analysts’ sentiment is recommending a “Strong Buy”. With a price target of $232.43, this suggests an upside of 0.88%.

For technical analysis, the recommendation is also a “Strong Buy”.

The stock price has gained 24.4% from a year ago.

Observations:

• The revenue of the business grew from $25.7 billion in 2015 to $88.8 billion in 2024.

• The gross profit of the business grew from $12.5 billion in 2015 to $49.8 billion in 2024.

• The operating profit grew from $9.8 billion in 2015 to $40.5 billion in 2024.

• The 10-year median margin of free cash flow (FCF) stands at a strong 23.5%.

• With a debt/assets value of 0.1, the business has low liability and a strong asset base.

Overall Assessment

Over the past 10 years, TSMC has demonstrated exceptional growth and stability in revenue and EPS, driven by its leadership in the semiconductor foundry market. Operating profits grew with margins expanding to 45.7%, reflecting financial strength. The company has consistently raised dividends, and its P/E ratio of 29.6 suggests a premium valuation justified by its market dominance. Strong FCF growth (20.2% CAGR), high gross margin (56.1% in 2024), and low debt (debt/equity 0.2) underscore its competitive advantages, including technological leadership in advanced nodes (e.g., 3nm), unmatched scale, and a critical role in the global tech supply chain. Despite a revenue dip in 2023, the 2024 recovery highlights its ability to navigate industry cycles effectively, positioning it well for continued success as of July 2025.

The forecast of the TSMC’s EPS and Revenue are $2.36 and $29.93B respectively.

Given the above info, TSMC can be a good addition to our portfolio, at the right price. I will prefer to monitor closely for now.

Market Outlook of S&P500 (14Jul25)

Technical observations:

• MACD - a top crossover should be completed over the coming days, and this implies a potential reversal is coming.

• Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing an uptrend.

• Both the 50 MA line and the 200 MA line are showing an uptrend. This speaks of a bullish outlook for both the short and long term.

• A golden cross is completed. This is typically a bullish signal when backed with strong volume.

• The CMF is positive at 0.23, indicating more buying pressure over the past 20 periods.

From the technical analysis, we are seeing a “Strong Buy” rating with the daily interval. There are 20 indicators with a “Buy” rating and none showing a “Sell” rating.

Now, let us look at the candlestick patterns.

Outlook and Implications for the Coming Week (With help from Grok)

• Short-Term Outlook (July 14–18, 2025): The S&P 500 is likely to start the week with a bearish bias, driven by the Evening Star and Bearish Engulfing patterns from June 16. If the price has fallen further, the downtrend could continue. A potential scenario for the week includes:

• Long-Term Outlook: The long-term trend remains neutral, with the risk of turning bearish if the price breaks below 5,796.34 with strong selling pressure. A hold above this level with new bullish patterns could restore the bullish outlook, but the current correction mirrors the early 2025 decline, suggesting caution.

• Actionable Insight: For the coming week, monitor the price action around 5,796.34 (200 MA) closely. A break below this level with high volume would favor a bearish outlook. A bounce with a bullish and rising volume could indicate a reversal. Check daily and weekly candlestick formations mid-week for confirmation, as the monthly candle’s close on July 31 will provide further clarity on the Evening Star’s completion.

The candlestick patterns suggest a bearish short-term outlook for the coming week, with a neutral long-term outlook, indicating the S&P 500 may continue its correction unless a bullish reversal emerges at key support levels.

Compiling the above information, we can expect the market to rally with a reversal (to downtrend) to follow.

News and my thoughts from the past week (14Jul25)

The S&P500 does not represent the American economy. It represents some of the top American companies who have global footprint - revenue and presence. Just like the tent cities do not represent America?

Housing Defaults have skyrocketed – X user Bravos Research

US government debt market COLLAPSE has begun. This has MASSIVE implications for the economy. – X user Bravos Research

SALESFORCE CEO: “CHINA’S BUILDING A NUCLEAR PLANT A DAY - BUT IT’S SOLAR” 93GW in May 2025 alone... that's the energy equivalent of building 3 nuclear plants per day. Let that sink in. Salesforce CEO, Marc Benioff: “They’re adding clean energy so fast, it’s like one nuclear power plant a day… just through solar. It makes you step back and ask: how are we going to power the next generation of intelligence?” It’s not just about renewables. It’s about the infrastructure for AI, for industry, for planet-scale computing. And right now? Beijing’s running laps while the West debates permitting. Source: AI for Good Conference Geneva

The US yield curve has now been positive for 11 MONTHS: The difference between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields has sharply risen over the last 2 years In the past, once the yield curve turned sharply positive, the US economy was in a recession. Are we in a recession? – X user Global Markets Investor

AMAZON PRIME DAY SALES DROPPED 41% ON THE FIRST DAY OF THE FOUR-DAY EVENT, SIGNALING COLLAPSING CONSUMER SPENDING

Trump has issued new tariffs:

• 20% on the Philippines

• 25% on Brunei

• 25% on Moldova

• 25% on Japan

• 25% on South Korea

• 25% on Malaysia

• 25% on Tunisia

• 25% on Kazakhstan

• 30% on Algeria

• 30% on Iraq

• 30% on Libya

• 30% on Bosnia and Herzegovina

• 30% on South Africa

• 32% on Indonesia

• 35% on Bangladesh

• 35% on Serbia

• 36% on Thailand

• 36% on Cambodia

• 40% on Myanmar

• 40% on Laos

President Trump says the U.S. will be sending more weapons to Ukraine. This is leaving some of the MAGA base confused.

My Investing Muse (14Jul25)

Layoffs & Closure news

• Intel layoffs 2025: Thousands of jobs cut as chipmaker begins restructuring – Oregon Live

• Dow to close three European chemical plants, cut 800 jobs | Reuters

There have been 371 corporate bankruptcies year-to-date, the most in 15 YEARS. Among sectors, Industrials and Consumer Discretionary have been the most hit with 58 and 49 filings, respectively. Bankruptcies are at recession levels. – X user Global Markets Investor

The US job numbers will likely be REVISED DOWN by nearly 800,000 for the 9 months ending December 2024, according to QCEW data. This means non-farm payrolls were OVERSTATED by ~88,888 jobs each month during this period. – X user Global Markets Investor

Job postings on Indeed dropped to their lowest since February 2021. They are now near the pre-2020 Crisis levels. Job postings have declined for 3.5 years. Obviously, this does not include ghost postings. US hiring is dismal. – X user Global Markets Investor

The above are some news items about layoffs and closures. As tariff negotiations drag on, the collateral to businesses (especially smaller ones) can compound.

Margin call & Institutional investors are dumping

The following news extract shows an increasing number of investors who lean on credit (leverage). There is news that shows that institutional investors are exiting the market, as retail investors are driving the recent market rally.

Investors are now buying stocks on margin at levels never seen before in history. – Barchart.

Professional investors are DUMPING US stocks: Institutional investors sold $2.3 BILLION in US equities last week. They have now sold in 8 out of the last 9 weeks. While institutions have been dumping, retail investors are still buying. – X user Global Markets Investor

My final thoughts

The market should see some volatility with the CPI news. Though PCE is the preferred inflation reference (for the Federal Reserve), it would lend some reference and influence on how interest rate decisions can be made.

President Trump’s latest tariffs have been released, and there has been a mixed response from the various countries. This tax is usually borne by the importer of the goods into America. While the importer can “push” the supplier to take on some of the costs, we can expect most of the tariffs to be “passed on” to the American consumers. We will see how the recent tariffs affect the inflation (CPI).

Let us review our expenditures, income, and savings. Let us spend within our means, invest with what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. I am reviewing my holdings and plan to cut losses with businesses losing their competitive advantages. I would also consider hedging and adding some defensive positions.

Let us do our due diligence before we take up any positions. Let us have a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars

$S&P 500(.SPX)$

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$