To The Moon

Why I'm Still Averaging Up on PLTR — But Wouldn’t Start a New Position Now

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) has been on a tear. With strong momentum, a string of profitable quarters, and rising investor interest in AI-driven enterprise software, it's no surprise the stock has rallied hard in recent months.

But with that rally comes a familiar question: Is it too late to get in?

For new investors looking to open a fresh position, I believe the risk-reward at current levels is not ideal. However, for someone like me — who already has high conviction and a well-established position — I've continued to average up using the Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) method.

Why I'm Bullish on Palantir

PLTR has transitioned from a government-dependent data company to a dual-engine business model, with both commercial and government revenue streams growing. Importantly, it has achieved consistent GAAP profitability — a milestone that separates it from many speculative tech names.

Its AI capabilities are not just theoretical — Palantir is helping real-world organizations deploy and operationalize large language models, with use cases ranging from supply chain optimization to defense systems. This isn't just another AI "hope" story. It's a business with actual clients, actual deployments, and recurring revenue.

What excites me further is Palantir's rapidly expanding portfolio of real-world, high-impact projects. The AI Platform is being adopted across industries — from healthcare systems using it to accelerate patient treatment plans, to automakers optimizing EV production lines, and even military partners leveraging Palantir software for mission-critical planning. The company recently secured a significant contract with the U.S. Army worth over $400 million, solidifying its role in national defense tech. Meanwhile, commercial adoption in Europe and Asia continues to gain momentum. These are not experiments — they are scaled implementations.

Averaging Up with DCA — My Strategy

I initially started my PLTR position at lower prices. As conviction grew with the company's results and product momentum, I chose to average up — not blindly, but strategically, using DCA.

Averaging up isn't always popular — many investors only buy dips. But when a company is executing well, and the story is playing out better than expected, I believe it's rational to add to winners, even at higher prices, rather than chase "value traps" that keep sinking.

My DCA approach helps me stay disciplined, reduce timing risk, and build a solid long-term position in a company I believe will compound for years to come.

Why I Don't Recommend Opening a New Position Now

Let me be clear: this is not a good entry point for new investors in my view.

PLTR's valuation is rich right now, and after such a big run-up, the short-term downside risk is real. Any slight disappointment in earnings, macro pressure, or AI sector sentiment could trigger a pullback. Risk is elevated, and entering here without strong conviction or risk tolerance might lead to regret.

That's why I wouldn't be starting fresh here — I'd wait for a better entry point if I were new to the stock. But because I'm already in with a lower cost basis and long-term conviction, averaging up is aligned with my strategy and acceptable risk profile.

Final Thoughts

Palantir remains one of my highest-conviction long-term plays in the AI infrastructure space. But while I continue to average up using DCA, I fully acknowledge that the current price may not be favorable for new investors to jump in.

It's important to separate averaging up from chasing. I'm not chasing hype — I'm deepening my stake in a business I believe in. But I do it with awareness of the risks and patience for the long run.

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