To The Moon

$Oscar Health, Inc.(OSCR)$ $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$📉📈 I’m watching OSCR test its trendline as earnings approach; here’s why this setup demands attention 📈

I’m extremely confident that Oscar Health ($OSCR) is approaching a critical inflection point. With the stock hovering near a key diagonal trendline around $15.65–$16, I’m watching this channel test closely ahead of earnings on 06Aug25. If it wants to hold the structure and complete the larger measured move, OSCR needs to beat.

I’m aware that the company’s updated FY25 guidance wasn’t without complexity. Management is forecasting $12–$12.2B in revenue with operational losses between $200M and $300M. While those losses might alarm some, I’m interpreting them as part of a longer-term transition strategy, especially given the accelerating uptake in Individual Coverage HRA (ICHRA) enrollments and AI-driven efficiency plays. This isn’t about overnight profitability; it’s about margin evolution in a data-rich insurance landscape.

I’m also factoring in the 22% rally over the last quarter, which didn’t occur in isolation. OSCR’s move coincided with S&P 500 all-time highs and a broader wave of risk-on sentiment. However, I’m not attributing this entirely to macro tailwinds. Their Q1 print was solid, and revised guidance offered rare clarity in a sector often riddled with regulatory opacity. Investors noticed.

From a long-term perspective, I’m impressed by the 180% return OSCR has posted over the past three years. That dwarfs the US insurance industry’s 9.3% average return over the last twelve months. Yet short-term doubts persist; the stock still trades below the $19.36 analyst consensus target, despite rebounding from its $11.20 base.

On the technical front, I’m watching that falling wedge breakout with a measured move to $21–$24. The RBR (Rally, Base, Rally) zone near $13.80–$14.60 has been retested, and the recent reaction suggests accumulation. A breakout above the $16 handle reopens the gap toward $18.50, aligning with the midline of the channel. Above that, I see the upper boundary of the structure pointing toward $26–$28 in the right conditions.

Options data reinforces the pivot. I’m seeing call activity edge ahead of puts, with a put/call ratio of 0.94, slightly above average. IV30 remains elevated at 100.73 but has compressed modestly, suggesting the market’s preparing for a directional move. With implied volatility pricing a ±11.65% swing, or $1.74 move, this earnings could be the spark.

I’m mindful of two fundamental red flags flagged by Simply Wall St, likely centered on ongoing losses and sector competition. But I also understand that scaling a digital-first health insurer in a regulated environment takes time. The question is whether investors are pricing in too much short-term pain and not enough operational leverage from platform efficiencies.

I’m watching closely for how the market digests the earnings print. Beat and raise, and we may reclaim the gap fast. Miss or guide lower, and I’ll be watching for a return to that $13.50–$14.20 base.

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