To The Moon

$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ 🎯💰🔥 Big Tech’s $400B AI Arms Race Meets August’s Volatility Crossroads 🔥💰🎯

I’m extremely confident we’ve just crossed into a new era. Capital expenditures aren’t a cost; they’re a competitive weapon. The latest WSJ data confirms it: Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Meta are on pace to collectively spend over $400 billion annually on infrastructure. This is a seismic shift that redefines leadership in the AI-first economy.

The visual escalation in quarterly capex is undeniable. After years of steady growth, the post-2023 acceleration has turned parabolic. The 2025 forecast towers above all prior years, driven by Meta’s hyperscale push, Google’s model deployment race, Microsoft’s Copilot buildout, and Amazon’s persistent foundational dominance. This is not overinvestment. It is existential.

Amazon ($AMZN) provides the most instructive case. AWS is now a $123.6B annualised business, with quarterly revenues climbing from $10B in late 2019 to $30.9B as of Q2 2025. That’s a 210% gain at a 22.8% CAGR. This consistent uptrend justifies Amazon’s base-layer spend. It isn’t chasing AI. It is already the infrastructure others depend on. Bedrock and Trainium are strategic extensions, not speculative moonshots.

I am watching Microsoft ($MSFT) closely. Their Q2 Azure commentary confirmed +34% YoY infrastructure investment, with margins expanding despite ramped-up GPU deployment. The monetisation flywheel from OpenAI integration across Microsoft 365, GitHub, and Dynamics is already spinning. Unlike prior tech waves, Microsoft is capturing infrastructure and application layers simultaneously.

Alphabet ($GOOGL) remains in lockstep. Q2 capex exceeded $11B, primarily driven by Gemini model training, TPU expansion, and Google Cloud infrastructure enhancements. Sundar Pichai’s public commitment to multimodal AI at scale reinforces Alphabet’s intent to remain an integrated LLM platform across Search, Ads, Workspace, and YouTube.

Meta ($META) is no longer an outlier. Following its pivot from metaverse experimentation to AI infrastructure leadership, the company recorded a record $9.2B in capex last quarter. That capital is being channelled into Llama model training, inference delivery, and repurposed social infra, including Threads. Zuckerberg isn’t just positioning Meta to compete. He’s building sovereign compute rails from the ground up.

Here’s where it gets even more strategic. We’re now entering August, historically a month of whipsaws and recalibration. The S&P 500 has posted four straight months of gains, and while August isn’t a graveyard, it’s no stranger to shakeouts. Over the past 10 years, the index has averaged a modest +0.5% in August, but with volatility spikes that test conviction. Last August? A mid-month dip followed by a +2% finish.

The setup today is tension-filled. The S&P 500’s RSI sits at 65, flirting with overbought territory. Inflation ticked up to 2.7% in June, while rate cut odds for September hover near 64%. That’s far from consensus. The Fed remains cautious. Meanwhile, earnings are robust (+12% YoY), but valuations are stretched. Any stumble from the capex leaders such as Apple, Amazon, Meta, or Microsoft could trigger a mechanical unwind.

That is not a reason to panic. It’s a reason to prepare.

If we do see a 5 to 10% pullback, history tells us this: dip-buying works. After 5% drops, the S&P 500 has historically gained an average of 12% over the next 12 months, positive 75% of the time. Last August’s pullback saw retail trading surge 55%, with 70% of trades skewed toward accumulation.

📌 Tactical framework:

• Watch the S&P 500’s 5,800 to 6,000 range as potential support

• Target structurally strong names with capex-backed moats ($MSFT, $AMZN, $GOOGL, $META)

• Rotate into ETF exposure for broader AI and cloud infrastructure plays ($SMH, $VOO)

• Keep capital flexible, not frozen. Volatility creates entries, not exits

I believe we are not just witnessing an AI revolution. We’re witnessing the hardware-backed institutionalisation of AI as a core driver of earnings, economic productivity, and market structure. Capex is no longer a lagging indicator of confidence. It is a leading signal of dominance.

📈 I’m monitoring $MSFT and $GOOGL closely for potential hyperscaler entries, while holding indirect exposure through $VOO and $SMH for broader infrastructure upside. I’m also preparing dry powder for any August volatility that gives me entry into structurally advantaged names.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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