To The Moon

$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ 🧨📊🐂 $SMCI: volatility cage meets binary earnings gamble ~ who blinks first? 🐂📊🧨

I’m convinced we’re staring down one of the most compressed, high-stakes setups in the market heading into 5Aug. Super Micro Computer ($SMCI) is teetering between technical inflection, valuation pessimism, and institutional quiet confidence. What breaks first, the chart or the Street’s resolve?

Let’s get the facts straight.

📅 Earnings preview (Q2 2025, reporting 5Aug):

• Expected revenue: $5.893B (+11.0% YoY from $5.31B)

• Guided revenue range (May 6): $5.60B to $6.40B

• EPS expected: $0.44 (LSEG mean)

• EPS guidance: $0.40 to $0.50

• CapEx guidance: $45M to $55M

• Gross margin: 10% expected

Now here’s the Street’s posture:

• Average rating: “Hold”

• Recommendation breakdown: 7 Buys, 8 Holds, 3 Sells

• 12-month median price target: $37.97, a sharp 49.2% below Friday’s close of $56.64

• Earnings revisions (last 3 months): unchanged

That’s a market daring the company to prove it wrong.

🔍 Historical earnings show why the Street’s skeptical:

• Mar 2025: Actual $0.31 vs $0.50 (Miss −38.1%)

• Dec 2024: $0.60 vs $0.64 (Miss −5.4%)

• Sep 2024: $0.74 vs $0.76 (Miss −2.0%)

• Jun 2024: $0.63 vs $0.81 (Miss −22.5%)

• But earlier quarters (Mar–Sep 2023) beat estimates by +12% to +19%

So, we’ve got four straight misses, deteriorating profit surprise, and razor-thin margin guidance.

But the chart tells a different story.

📈 Weekly candle structure shows accelerating higher lows since May, with momentum hugging the upper Bollinger/Keltner channels. The recent rally lifted price into $56.64 before pulling back modestly, right into confluence.

📉 4H chart:

• Price now rides the 55 EMA ($56.36), compressing between the mid-Keltner band and Bollinger mean

• This is a volatility coil. We’re about to get resolution

🎯 Key levels:

• $57.20: must reclaim for bulls to regain upper channel

• $56.49: near-term pivot

• $55.50: fib and Keltner band support

• $54.50: unfilled gap

• $53.77: critical structural support

• $52.09: last line of defense. Lose this and downside momentum ignites

📉 Sentiment? Cautious, but not fleeing.

Just look at institutional behavior. Despite $SMCI’s multi-month collapse from over $1,000, institutional ownership has remained steady, even rebounding post-Jan 2025. That’s a powerful signal. They’re not running, they’re reloading.

I’m strategically watching this from a volatility and credibility lens. This isn’t just about beating EPS. It’s about restoring trajectory. SMCI isn’t trading on results. It’s trading on whether belief in its AI-fueled growth story still holds up after a brutal drawdown.

The volatility is cheap. The chart is coiled. The Street is doubting. And funds are holding.

Are you positioned for a credibility recovery or another miss-driven fade?

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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