To The Moon

$Figma(FIG)$ 🚨📉 Figma’s IPO Fairytale Is Over: Bear Market Begins at $FIG 🪞💣

I’m absolutely convinced we’ve witnessed the most blatant post-IPO liquidity event since Rivian. This was never a long-term rally; it was a retail trap, wrapped in an AI ribbon. The short setup here isn’t just valid. It’s textbook.

📉 The rally is over.

💰 I am short-biased with high conviction.

📊 My fair value estimate for $FIG is under $50.

Let me prove it.

🔍 Figma’s IPO Mechanics: Built to Pop, Engineered to Drop

Figma IPO’d at $33 on 31Jul25. It surged to $125 intraday (+279%) and closed at $122.75. But this wasn’t euphoria; it was extraction.

• 36M shares sold raised $1.2B

• 24M came from early investors, 12M from insiders

• Opened around $100, $67 above IPO price

• That gap was worth $2.4B in markup not captured by Figma

• Current price: $88.80, a brutal 27.38% drop from the Friday close

• Market cap collapsed from $59.5B to $43.2B

Wall Street didn’t misprice this. They overpriced it on purpose. The IPO wasn’t about capital raising; it was about insider exits. Retail got invited to the party after the cake was cut.

📉 Technical Breakdown: IPO Top, Bearish Continuation

The charts are unanimous: distribution is in play.

• $FIG broke below EMA55 on all timeframes

• Multiple lower highs and lower lows confirm a trend reversal

• $91.49 is the last local high, now flipped to resistance

• Strong descending triangle with a breakdown zone at $85.50

• Keltner compression and Bollinger reversion suggest continuation lower

• No bullish divergence on RSI. MACD is fading without a crossover

The technical setup is clean. This is not a pullback; it’s phase two of a post-IPO unwind.

🎯 Valuation: Delusion Meets Gravity

Let’s be brutally honest.

• $FIG trades at 53× TTM revenue

• Adobe trades at 11×, profitable, and cash generative

• Figma: 91% gross margin, 48% YoY revenue growth, zero earnings visibility

• Claimed usage by 78% of Forbes 2000 companies

• CEO Dylan Field holds 54.2M shares worth $5B with 74.1% voting power

This is not a rational valuation. This is speculative fiction.

💰 My fair value target?

Below $50, based on a 20× revenue multiple (generous for a pre-profit SaaS peer set) and a normalised market.

🪓 Options Flow Confirms Bearish Sentiment

Institutions are piling in, aggressively!

• $FIG 75P, 09/19/25 expiry

• 6 block sweeps across multiple exchanges

• 1,158 contracts, avg premium ~$8.10

• Total put flow: $946.64K, zero call flow

• OTM 15.92–16.68%, showing smart money is betting on another 20% downside

• SigScores as high as 0.87, signalling high-conviction entries

🧮 Greeks confirm these bets are directional, not hedges:

• Delta: -0.209

• Gamma: 0.013

• Theta: -0.284

• Vega: 0.044

• Rho: -0.006

IV is currently 154.45%, with a ±23.81% expected move into expiry. With that kind of volatility baked in, the options chain is clearly pricing more pain.

🧠 Sentiment Shift: From Speculation to Skepticism

Early enthusiasm has quickly given way to disillusionment. While the product remains widely respected, the price action now reflects a broader market realignment. One trader summarised the mood with clinical precision:

“If you chased $FIG last Thursday, you’re not wise. Everyone who added 5 minutes after the open is negative. Rug pull starts now.”

It’s a blunt but accurate reminder of how rapidly sentiment can reverse when valuations disconnect from fundamentals.

🚨 Strategic Conclusion: I’m Positioning for the Breakdown

Unless $FIG reclaims and closes above $91.49, the bear case holds. Any bounce into the descending trendline is a sell. The likely path:

• Retest $85.50 support

• Breakdown toward $75

• Then freefall to fair value near $50 if momentum accelerates

Options flow is loaded. Technicals are aligned. Valuation is detached from reality.

This IPO is over. The game now is short the dream.

📌 What do you think is Figma’s real worth? Are you trading it long, short, or just observing the carnage from the sidelines?

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

@Tiger_comments @TigerWire @TigerStars @TigerPicks @TigerObserver 

Sis, this $FIG setup is juicier than kaya toast at 3am, come lah, let’s show them it’s not just Wall Street that knows how to extract value. Join in! Tiger Coins could be ours 🐅🪙 @SPACE ROCKET