To The Moon

$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ 📉🔥🤖 AMD crashes 10% post-earnings: China curbs cloud Q3 vision exposed 🤖🔥📉

This isn’t just a post-earnings dip; I’m calling it a seismic shift. AMD plunged $14 today, closing down 8.5% to $159.50. Options flow confirmed institutional conviction: $13.69M in calls were sold, $5.01M in puts were bought, all within ≤90 DTE single-leg setups. That’s not a hedge; it’s a tactical evacuation.

📊 See 4H chart below for the breakdown; note the $165.60 pivot breach

Chart Breakdown (4H and Weekly):

AMD collapsed through critical levels: $177.50, $172.80, $165.60, and finally lost the $160 handle. The move punched through the lower Keltner and Bollinger bands, signaling max volatility. Weekly RSI(6,12,24) shows momentum fatigue at 66.87 / 65.82 / 58.81. MACD(12,26,9) shows a clear bear crossover (DIF = MACD line at 11.91, DEA = signal line at 5.05). Unless $165.60 is reclaimed, the next structural support lies near $118.30 (30-week MA).

Earnings Snapshot:

• Revenue: $7.69B (+32% YoY), beat vs $7.43B est

• EPS: $0.48 vs $0.49 est

• Data center revenue: $3.2B (+14%), below $3.25B whisper

• PC revenue: $2.5B (+67%)

But none of that mattered.

Why? Because the AI story broke.

Lisa Su confirmed MI308 chip revenue to China is excluded from Q3 guidance:

“As our licenses are still under review, we are not including any MI308 revenue in our third-quarter guidance.”

That omission pulled the rug. AMD previously forecast a $1.5B hit to 2025 revenue from U.S. China export curbs, and the market now sees that risk as real, not theoretical. Despite upbeat Q3 guidance of $8.7B (vs $8.37B est), the lack of clarity on China slammed sentiment. AMD fell 6.5% premarket, accelerating through the session.

Market Reality Check:

Susquehanna reiterated a Buy with a $210 PT, but investors rejected the optimism. AMD trades at a forward P/E of 42x, compared to Nvidia’s 36x, yet lags Nvidia in dominance. With over 90% of the AI accelerator market locked by Nvidia, AMD and Intel battle for table scraps. Wall Street isn’t paying 42x for uncertainty.

The Street wanted a clear roadmap on how AMD would tap into the $340B in cloud capex announced by hyperscalers like Meta, Microsoft, and Google. Instead, it got delay and ambiguity. CFO Jean Hu reiterated that China inventory requires “further manufacturing work,” making conversion to revenue slow and uncertain.

CEO Su remains bullish long-term:

“We see a clear path to scaling our AI business to tens of billions of dollars in annual revenue.”

But this quarter, the market needed execution, not ambition.

My Setup:

I’m not chasing the flush. This breakdown confirms a multi-week top. Unless we see a reclaim of $165.60, I’m looking lower: possible bounce zones at $145.60 and $118.30. Momentum has shifted, and with MI355/MI350 shipments still ramping, clarity is scarce. I could explore long setups only after deeper support tests or bullish volume divergence.

So, is AMD Mag 7 material?

Not yet. It’s a giant, but Nvidia still casts the longest shadow.

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